Contact Me at sekywx2023@gmail.com
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Tornado Outbreak
Tonight and tomorrow will be very quiet with mostly clear skies and high temperatures into the mid and upper 60s for some, but on Friday we do it all over again and I am a bit on the worried side as the air masses will be clashing right over our area and that spells disaster for another severe weather outbreak in the making.
Here's what the Storm Prediction Center thinks for Friday on the categorical outlook that is baised on either slight risk, moderate risk, or high risk:
Thats another slight risk and for the whole state of Kentucky! Now this next image is a better look at the chances of severe thunderstorms, This one is the probabilistic look on things:
Look at the 30% range. Now I honestly think that around the 30% area will be a moderate risk by time the day starts Friday. This outbreak sure does have the potential for being worse than today's so I'll be keeping a very close evey on it as we get closer and through out the day tomorrow.
Have a great night everyone and take care! :)
TORNADO WATCH!
Thats the Tornado Watch map.
Here's what the storms prediction center is showing in our chances for severe thunderstorms..
That moderate risk is no joke! Things could get rough later today as this next map is the tornado outlook probability:
That is a hatched area of 15% chance of tornadoes in our area. That's good chance and I'm not saying a tornado will happen but I am telling you that a 15% risk is a very good chance for a tornado around here!
I will be with you all day long via Facebook and Twitter will rapid updates on the weather situation so make sure you stay tuned to the weather all day long and be aware of whats going on outside your door. Have a great day everyone and please be safe!
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Thunderstorms Ahead!
The slight risk threat slides further to the east to include our area for the day tomorrow but the main thing I'm worried about right now is a squall line of thunderstorms developing out west and moving into our area during the overnight hours. Here's a look at the current Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlooks:
You can see the slight risk in western Kentucky. What about here? Well you can't completely rule out the chance of storms here so the SPC has us in just general thunderstorms being possible but nothing severe.
Here's a look at early mornings and tomorrows outlook:
Tomorrow looks to be the heart of the Bluegrass state in the middle of the strong to severe thunderstorms, here's the probabilistic outlook for tomorrow:
Thats us in the 30% range. We'll have to keep a very close eye on that area as it will be the best area for seeing strong to severe thunderstorms. With these storms Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and Tornadoes are all a very possible threat. We'll have to wait and see how this all plays out as we move closer.
More updates via Facebook and Twitter later on today as the storms move closer! Have a great Tuesday everyone and take care! :)
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Warm It Up Again!
Today will be nothing like the last two days. Temperatures will rise into the low 50s around here with nice and mainly sunny skies. Temperatrures will do nothing but incease for the next few days with highs reaching 60 degrees by Monday, but the southwest winds will be a bit on the gusty side as well. Tuesday will be well into the 60s as another nasty storm gets set to affect us moving in to the western parts of the state Tuesday evening. By Wednesday morning it will affect the whole state and this looks to be another severe weather maker. It could put out some strong to severe thunderstorms.
The GFS model really likes the possibility of those severe thunderstorms. Thats not the only thing to watch for as the week goes on as we are and will be watching another system that looks to move in for the weekend and it may have a shot at bringing some winter weather back to our area of the state. I'd rather it be spring already but there's nothing we can do about it. My money is on this system not being the last to bring winter weather to our area ;).
Have a great day and take care everyone! :)
Friday, February 24, 2012
Stormy Thursday Turns Into Cool Friday
Anyways today will be very quiet, lower hanging clouds will be around with us for most of the day with a few peaks of sunshine. Temperatures for some areas are currently in the low to mid 50s and they look to slowly come down through out the day and we should see some snowflakes for tonight.
Tomorrow will be a cool day with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s and most locations will not get out of the 30s. Sunday looks to be a better day with high temperatures rising into the low 50s. Monday and Tuesday looks to be great days with high temperatures in the upper 50s maybe pushing 60 degrees.
We're watching another storm that looks to come rolling through on Wednesday into Thursday and it looks to be another severe weather maker with a nice shot of cold air to follow behing the front. Right now we are in a weather pattern that looks to bring several storms in our way and this looks to continue into the month of March. Will any of these bring us snow? That is yet to be known but we sure do have the threat for severe weather.
Have a great day everyone and take care! :)
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Thunderstorms On The Way
Anyways most of you are looking at the radar at the bottom of the page saying "Where's the storms?!?" Well they're not there (Duh!) They have yet to fire up and just because you don't see any storms on the radar doesn't mean we are our of the woods yet! We are far from it! Once these storms fire up they have plenty of unstable air to work with as they move to the east.
Temperatures down near the Kentucky/Tennessee border has now hit the big 70 degrees mark and that makes for even more instability in the air. By this time you all are probably wondering "How does the air become unstable?" Well when theres alot of sun out and it warms the air it creates instability and provides the ripe air mass needed for severe thunderstorms to develop.
Now with that being said, I do expect thunderstorms to fire up VERY SOON! Some of these will not only be strong but SEVERE as well. The storms that are not part of a squall line have a real chance of producing a TORNADO! So always be aware of the weather no matter where your at in the state. Have a great afternoon/evening with more updates via facebook and twitter and take care! :)
Stormy Thursday
Today, temperatures will spike well up into the upper 60s and some low 70s out there as the winds will really crank up from the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Now as you may know by now that any time temperatres gets this warm for this time of the year they are usally accompanied by strong and severe thunderstorms which we will see later today.
Here's a look at some Storm Prediction Center (SPC) products:
Thats the general risk. Damaging winds, large hail are the main threats. Any storms that gets out and roams on it's own needs to be watched as they will have the highest risk at producing tornadoes.
Here's the Torndao threat:
That hatches area of 5% and 10% is a pretty good shot for this time of year. I do believe some tornado warnings are very possible later today as thunderstorms start to fire up.
Here is the damaging winds threat:
Thats a good risk across the Bluegrass state for today.
Last but not least the hail threat:
The severe thunderstorm threat is a real thing for today. I'll have more updates later and quick updates via facebook and via twitter as the storms start to roll in! Have a great day and take care! :)
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Where's Winter?
Thats a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for southern and southeastern Kentucky. Especally in the London and Somerset areas.
The best chance of thunderstorms will come tomorrow as the unstable air will be best. The lifted index is showing -2 around here and thats a good bit of instability in the air and it looks to create some starong to severe thunderstorms. High temperatures for tomorrow is going to run in the upper 60s and even a few 70s out there! That should certainly help in the creating of thunderstorms.
Enjoy these warm temperatures as they will not last past Thursday! Friday a strong front will move in and cause temperatures to fall into the mid 30s by the afternoon hours! How about this Kentucky weather? Severe Thunderstorms one day to cold and a shot at some snow all within a 24 hour period.
More updates late today and quick updates via facebook. Have a great day and take care! :)
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Warm Up On The Way!
I wanted to start by saying the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put our area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Here's Thursday's Convective outlooks:
That's a slight risk for here!
Now check out the Convective Outlooks for Friday!
Both have slight risks here and that will be along and ahead of a strong cold front that is looking to bring out warm temperatures down into the drain for the day on Saturday!
More updates as needed so take care and have a great Tuesday! :)
Monday, February 20, 2012
White Monday
Today will feature alot of snow melting with sunny skies and high temperatures near 40. Tonight low temperatures will be near 32 degrees.
Tuesday a weak cold front moves into our area and it will bring some rain showers with it and it won't really have much cold air behind it at all. Highs will reach the upper 40s and maybe a few 50s.
Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the 50s with low 60s being very possible by Thursday and this will be ahead of a strong dip in the jet stream bringing a very potent cold front with plenty of rain along and ahead of the front with a switch to some snow behind it. No accumulation expected.
More updates as needed! Have a awesome Monday and take care! :)
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Let it Snow!
I do think a general 2-4 inches can be expected around here with local amounts higher than 4 inches. The reason why we haven't been snow this morning was the pure fact that it was too warm. Now that is is snowing I say enjoy it while it lasts because m=Monday temperatures will near 50 degrees so it will all melt tomorrow.
Now let's talk a little what if here. What if the snow started falling around 8am this morning? Well IF that happened we would be talking about 4-8 inches of snow around here and that is what I expected to happen in the way of when it was to start.
There os still plenty of moisture to work with and it should stil snow for a few more hours at the least leading to snowfall totals of 2-4 inches. it's going to be a tough call for schools tomorrow depending on how late the snow hangs around. Some models indicate the snow hanging around untill late around the 7pm hours.
Travel is going to be rough as long as it's snowing. I will have quick updates through out the day on my facebook so be carefull and have a great day! :)
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Major Snow Storm On The Way
Here's a briefing on what to expect and a little run through on how and if anythings has changed.
- Today, unseasonal high temperatures in the upper 50s and maybe a 60 out there is possible as well, we'll stay dry for most of the day today as the system moves in late. Rain showers will be the start to this eventual snow event.
- Rain changes over to snow over night tonight that is the early morning hours and the pre dawn hours as well. Snow should start to fall before sun up and the hardest snows looks to hit in the morning.
- Not much has changed in my snowfall forecast map, so therefore I am not going to make a new one just yet. A new map is very likely later tonight as more is known about where this system will track and how much more or less moisture will be available.
- Effects from the snow: Tree branches being down and small trees downed as well, power outages is a very real threat as well as 5" of this wet, heavy snow on any power lines or tree limbs will bring them down. Now alot of you have already been asking me this or just flat out wondering about this. Will there be school around here? Well honestly I normally do not answer this untill I know all the facts, weather conditions, road conditions ect.. but I will say this, it is very likely school systems will cancel classes for the day Monday and if not Tuesday. I say this because we're talking about possibly a foot of snow and that won't melt too easily ;)
Anyways more updates will be up later today and I hope to be able to fit in at least 2 more full updates later today and of course quick updates will be going up all day long on my facebook and I will most likely be blowning up your news feed with updates eventually ;) Have a great Saturday and take care! :)
Friday, February 17, 2012
WINTER STORM WATCH
As you can see that says WINTER STORM WATCH. This just isn't a winter weather advisory, this is much for iminant and more serious. We're talking about enough snow to knock out power and bring tree limbs down.
I'm not going to waste any time putting the map up so you all can see just how much snow we're talking about here. Now I must point out that the track of the low pressure system is everything. If it moves 50 miles south snow totals will go down, and if the system moves 50 more miles to the north snow totals will rise higher than what is on this map:
Thats 8-14 inches is far eastern Kentucky and 6-12 inches in areas as far west as London and Somerset. 3-6 around the Lexington area and 1-3 a bit to the west. A sharp cutoff is expected and like I said the track of the low will mean everything to how much we will see total wise.
I'll have more updates as we move along and like always quick updates via facebook! This is a serious threat to our weather and please play it smart and always know what the weather is like in a situation like this. Have a great evening and take care! :)
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Winter Storm?
Here's how things look to go down over the days leading to the weekend storm. Tomorrow for your Friday temperatures will start out well above average. The average morning temperatures is somewhere around 28 degrees and the average high for this time of year is somewhere near 46 degrees, temperatures tomorrow morning will be in the mid 40s and in the mid 50s for the highs with partly cloudy skies.
Saturday will start off calm as the storm gets set to move in later on in the day. We do start out dry but by the early evening hours we get in on a little bit of rain to start and the cold air will quickly move in during the late evening hours and also we will see a quick change over to a very wet, and heavy snow. This is the type of snow that makes tree branches and electric lines very heavy and can knock out power.
Now the newest runs on the models show this storm moving further north than first expected and if that is the case we will see an increase in snowfall totals and yes, the system is expected to move further north but how far? That is yet to be known, we still have 3 days untill it hits so we'll know soon enough. Anyways I have preped a map for you all on how big the risks will be around here:
There's a high risk, moderate risk, and a low risk:
Thats some good chances for accumulations of snow :). If the system moves a bit further north you could probably raise those lines about half a county north and half a county west.
More updates as we near Saturday's big system. Have a great night and take care! :)
Thursday Soaker, Weekend Snows?
Today rain showers will be hanging around for much of the afternoon especally in the central and eastern part of the state, a peak or two of sun is possible as we hit the evening hours as the rain moves out. Temperatures should top out in the low 50s despite the rain and clouds.
Friday is like the calm before the weekend storm, it looks to be a nice day with high temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s under mostly sunny skies. DON'T be fooled! This nice weather for Friday will not stick around as we have the threat for a WINTER STORM coming in time for Saturday night and thats when things will turn wintry in a hurry.
This system will come out of the gulf of Mexico and have plenty of moisture and lift up our way with cold air in place. Look at the GFS model for more :
That means snow looks to be falling by Saturday night, a quick change over from rain to a wet heavy snow.
Look how heavy that precip is as the system moves out of the Gulf Of Mexico into the Carolinas and on to the northeast.
This is something to seriously keep watch on, as this could lead to significant snowfall totals possibly being more than 3 inches for our area. More updates via Facebook and I hope to have another full update later today. Have a great day and take care :)
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Happy Valentines Day
Let's get to it folks, today the rain will continue to fall through out your afternoon into the early evening hours as temperatures hold in check in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow, clouds will be on the rise later in the day as another low pressure system moves back into the area and gets set for your Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low 50s.
Behind that next system thats set to move in here will be some cold artic air, and some models are trying to show a system going up in the southeastern states just off the coast in the Gulf Of Mexico and eventually move on shore and move towards the east northeast. Now IF this system does develop and IF it does bring us some precip what will the form be in? As of now IF it does happen it may be in the form of snow, but we are too far out to know for sure as we do not even know if this storm will even develop.
More updates later! Have a great Valentines Day and be safe and take care! :)
Monday, February 13, 2012
Early Morning Snow Worries
Temperatures is a key for what type of precip falls from the sky. It may start out as a brief rain to mix then eventually change to all snow at some point, then right at the time for the morning commute between 5am and 8am looks to be the worst of it and it could bring a little bit of everything as temperatures try to rise near freezing. Snow, rain, sleet, ice is all possible from this.
Very little if any snow accumulation is expected. Up to an inch for around this area. The only problem is it looks to be the worst around the morning commute like I said above.
Any school closings or delays possible? Yes, they are possible but the best chance for that is the further north you live. Chances are slim down here but hey, I've seen even bigger miracles happen before ;)
More updates later via facebook! Have a great evening and take care! :)
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Cold Weekend, Snowy Monday?
First off let's get to the current headlines and the short term stuff. Tonight temperatures will drop off in between 10 and 15 degrees with a very cold northwestern wind blowing with gusts up to and even more than 25mph at times. That will create a wind chill of around 0 degrees. Could we see some locations with wind chills going below 0 degrees? Yes, that is very possible overnight.
Sunday temperatures will rebound a bit, but will still be well below average yet we'll have plenty of sun. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Monday is what I was talking about for the good news for snow lovers. Monday night into early Tuesday morning another storm system will move in here and bring more snow to the area. I'm going out on a limb to say we could expect similar accumulations as we saw last night. Around 1-3 inches is a good bet... Again.
Temperatures looks to stay cold through the first half of next week at least. Towards the end of next week is when we could see yet another snow maker moving in here. This is shaping up for a nice pattern for the cold and snow lovers. Winter is not done yet!
More updates tomorrow, have a great night and take care! :)
Friday, February 10, 2012
Winter Weather Adviory Update
Here's my new and updated snowfall map:
Here is how it all will play out, snow will increase in coverage from southwest to northeast as the day goes on and just ahead of the precip temperatures will fall at to below freezing making this a almost totally snow event. Snow will pick up in intensity in the evening and over night hours as is likely to be coming down very heavily at times. Roads are very likely to be slick also. Temperatures will fall well into the low 20s and upper teens over night and high temperatures will only reach the mid and upper 20s with snow showers and flurries hanging around especally the further east you live.
Blowing snow is a real good threat especally for tomorrow morning as the northwesterly winds will pick up and cause some intense snow squalls in which if your area just so happens to get in on a good snow squall you could see a very quick half inch to even an additional inch of snow come down in a very short time frame.
More updates later and quick updates via facebook! If you don't follow me on there now is the time to do so! I do make alot of very Important updates on there so make sure to watch for them. Have a great afternoon and take care! :)
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Winter Weather Advisory
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE FROM 6PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING UNTILL NOON EST 12PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
Here's a look at the NAM projected snowfall totals:
Thats 1-2 inches here and 2-3 inches just to the north of us.
Here is a look at what the GFS model thinks:
The GFS is talking about 1-2 inches of snow around here with 2-3 just north and an area of up to 4 inches in far northeastern Kentucky.
Here's my first call for snowfall map:
The 2-4 inch range is for the mountain areas and a good swath of one to rwo inches can be expected for much of south central/eastern, central, and northern parts of Kentucky. A good light coating can be expected for western Kentucky.
Tomorrow high temperatures will get up to around 40, then as they start to cool off thats when the snow will start flying and Saturday looks to be very cold with high temperatures ONLY hitting into the upper 20s for highs and low temperatures Saturday night will be right around 12 degrees.
More updates through out the day tomorrow and quick updates on my facebook! If you don't follow them on facebook now is the time to do so! have a great night and take care! :)
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Light Snow Accumulations For Some
First off, Thursday and Friday will bring us seasonal temperatures and this will be ahead of a big artic front that is expected to move in on Friday night and it looks to bring us the coldest temperatures we've seen in a long while. It will move in from the northwest and it should have an area of light rain along and ahead of the front with some snow showers just behind the front. This could bring some light accumulations for some.
Now let's talk about how cold can we get? Pretty cold I'm talking about high temperatures for Saturday ONLY getting into the mid and upper 20s!!! Yes, thats right. The low temperatures in the low and mid teens as well. Here's a look at what I'm talking about:
Thats what the GFS is saying and thats the highs for Saturday. Welcome back winter!
Have a great Wednesday and take care everyone! :)
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Snow On The Move For Tonight
This update is just for what to expect with tonights expected snowfall. First off not much accumulation is expected from this snowfall, but what does accumulate will be on the slushy side and in the early morning hours they're may be a bit of trouble on roadways especally the backroads that doesn't get much sunlight. For the most part roadways will be okay because the blacktop is still warm and it looks to stay that way overnight.
Most accumulations will happen on grassy areas where any given location could get in on a heavier snow shower that could bring a quick burst of snow and a quick accumulation on the grass. 1 inch of snow can be expected along the I-64 area or from Lexington on northward, but some models are giving me some hope of some accumulations down here in southeastern Kentucky.
More updates later as needed and quick updates via facebook. If you don't have me on there you should, thats where most of my quick updates goes. Have a great evening and take care! :)
Chance Of Snow Tonight
Here's a look at the updated NAM model snowfall map:
According to the map thats up to an inch areound here. I would post what the GFS is saying but nobody wants to see that ;) plus the GFS would bring your hopes for snow down anyways.
I'll be watching this all day to see if there's any changes to this snowfall projections map and quick updates will go up on my facebook. Have a great Tuesday and take care everyone! :)
Monday, February 6, 2012
Winter Returns
The first chance of snow comes in on Tuesday night into early on Wednesday as a low pressure system moves in the Tennessee Valley. This will bring a bit of a very cold rain and some light snow showers our way.
The NAM shows the chances of accumulations. Some of you have seen this picture of my facebook account earlier today... The NAM picture is the first one you see...
I feel like I've been talking about this for a month now but it's only been a few days. This is the next thing we'll be tracking as this weekend another shot at some cold air moves in and it very well could have some snow with it as well. The European model is showing the best shot at seeing some snow Friday Night into Saturday... It is the second picture might I add...
Here's what the Canadian model says about this weekends system (the 3rd picture)...
And last but not least the JMA model (4th picture)...
Have a great night and take care with more updates coming tomorrow! :)
Monday Afternoon Thoughts...
All looks good for tomorrow with, a high pressure bringing dry air and temperatures in the low 50s for highs. After that we look to see some snow flying through out the day Wednesday with some very light accumulations is possible early on in the morning hours. Here's a look at how the GFS likes to play this out:
As you can tell Wednesday the best chance of seeing the snow fall is to the north in the morning hours and as we get into the afternoon hours the better chance exists for us down here in the southern and eastern parts of Kentucky.
All eyes is on the upcoming weekend which most models are pointing at a big dip in the jet stream to come over the eastern half of the country and even some of the models are pointing at the possibility of a big storms going up on the east coast. If this storm happens will it affect us? Well of course it is yet to be known because we don't even know if this storm will happen yet or not.
I'll be keeping my eyes open and on the look out for these weather events that are upcoming. One thing that is known is that this weekend we will get in on the coldest air we've seen in a long while. More updates as needed like always! Have a great Monday afternoon and evening and take care! :)
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Super Bowl Sunday!
I've been watching the possibility of a weak system moving in here on Wednesday and maybe bringing some light snows back to the area and thats something I'll have my eye on in the coming days.
This coming weekend is when things looks to change... BIG TIME. A big dip in the jet stream looks to set up for the eastern half of the country making for very cold air to move in to the area as our temperatures will go well below normal for the weekend and some models are trying their best to show a big storm going up to our east.
A good look from the GFS model is showing the cold air lasting well into the start of next week, and how this plays out is yet to be known exactly, but your weather dude will be watching this carefully!
Have a great Super Bowl Sunday, be safe and take care! :)
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Big Changes On The Way
On the first picture you'll see Thursday morning, and you can see the low pressure system to the north in Canada and that will push towards our way, more or less just slide east. Then the other half of the picture you'll see on Friday. Now you can really see that cold on the western most lake of the great lakes. That will slowly work in here for the weekend. Now since that low pressure will be bringing some very cold air with it, yes, the lake effect snow machine will crank up again with it. Possibly a snow storm for the north ;) as for us? That's a bit too far ahead for me to know for sure but like always when I know, you'll know too! :)
The next picture you'll see the day after that on Saturday. The cold air will still be pushing into our area bringing plenty of well you guessed it! Cold air along with it. These pictures are from the European model and the European model has been very good for us here lately. If it wasn't on the dot with it's solutions it was darn close!
The European model likes to say winter is far from being over! Have a great day everyone and I'll have updates as needed, take care! :)
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Weekend Soaker
Okay let's start by saying I do not think we will see any snow from this system. Thats a sad face for you snow lovers out there. Instead it looks to bring plenty of rain to our area with a few inches of rain at that is very possible for some locations.
I like what the models have laid out for us over the next few weeks. They are showing a cooler than normal pattern with a few chances of anow.. at the least that is. It sure is somthing to keep an eye on as we get closer to that time but for now we have this big system to worry about for the weekend that looks to bring heavy rains and local flooding and of course high flowing creeks and streams and the occasional river or two.
The hardest part of what I do is predicting winter weather. I personally like to think I am alot better at predicting and forecasting severe weather like thunderstorms. Shewww, I'm ready for spring after a disapointing winter!
More updates as needed. have a great Thursday and take care everyone! :)