Severe Threat Monday? Slight Cool Down Afterwords

Good Friday evening to all! We just came out of two straight severe weather days where strong and severe storms were kept to more of a spotty threat and not everyone got in on the strong storms. Those are the situations we like the best! Since we're coming out of a harsh winter, everyone wants to know where do we go from here? Another cool down or is the spring like temperatures a permanent thing?

First off, the weekend looks great with high temperatures generally running in the mid 60's with sunny skies for the most part. I'm focusing on Monday as we see another potential severe weather threat for the area. We're still two days out and the details are few and far between. One thing for certain is there will be a lot of moisture available and this could lead to yet another flooding potential for areas that have already been waterlogged, but so far confidence is low in a widespread severe weather event.

Beyond the Monday potential severe weather threat we'll see a slight cool down for your Tuesday, and Wednesday. This will be due to a passing strong cold front in which will bring a cooler and much drier brand of air into the area from southern Canada. You can expect dry conditions with highs in the low 50's on Tuesday and mid 50's on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will feel spring like once again with high temperatures into the low 70's with Friday having a chance for general thunderstorms. This will be due to an influx of moisture streaming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. By the weekend, there could be enough instability to spark a severe weather threat but that's 7+ days away and confidence in a severe weather threat is very low.

More updates will come as needed concerning the possible severe weather threat on Monday. Have a great evening everyone and take care! :)

Looking For Spring!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog. Time has been short and I've been unable to post on here much. Anyways, I've been on what seems to be a never ending search for spring like weather. Yes, it is spring but it doesn't feel like it. What I'm looking for is a warm up that will last. Not one that will go for about a week and turn cold. Finally, I think I've found it. Let's get to it.

Take a look at the El Nino forecast. For those who don't know, an El Nino is a sign of warmer conditions are ahead but it also means an increase in severe weather season. The picture below should explain some things for you. Take a look:

As you can tell right now we're in a Neutral Phase in which the cold has dominated all winter. Notice the numbers on the left side? Anywhere between -0.5 and 0.5 is a Neutral Phase, Below -0.5 is a La Nina and above 0.5 is an El Nino. Also notice the rapid upward trend over very little time? That's an indicator (a strong one at that) of not only an El Nino (duh) but of warmer weather coming our way (and very shortly since we're seeing a rapid upward trend).

I keep seeing more of these popping up for the month of April. This one is for the first week as we'll see a nice week of temperatures but you see the greens and blues to the northwest of here? That's a sign of one more, yes, just one more shot of cold weather and then I think we should be home free for the most part.

From everything I'm seeing, including the collapse of the Polar Vortex over the Artic Circle in the Stratosphere, tells me Spring like weather is just around the corner. Literally. The only concerning thing I'm seeing is the rapid increase into an El Nino in which could dramatically increase the severe weather season across much of the area. Nonetheless, spring like weather is on the way. I think we start to see a permanent warm up in the next 2-3 maybe 4 weeks at the latest. It isn't too far off but first another teaser to start off April, then one more cold spell until we can assure you of the permanent warm up.

Again thanks for reading everyone! I'll try to post on here much more often especially as we head into the spring severe weather season. Have a great day everyone and take care! :)

Looking Ahead To The Long Range

Hello everyone and good Sunday evening to you. We're fresh off the best snow (so far) of the winter season and we managed to follow that up with high temperatures in the upper 40's and a few low 50's out there. I guess you can certainly call this a wild weekend. Tonight we'll see another artic front moving in with a band of light snow behind it. This could bring up to an inch of snow. The best chacnes for accumulation looks to be south of I-64 and along and east of I-75. Timing of the front and snow looks to occur early Monday morning.

What does it look like further down the road? I recently had the chance to check seasonal models earlier today and saw some interesting stuff. First off, the month of February looks cold and snowy from the last check of the CFS models. March is throwing some mixed signals but at the same time, it trends a warm up. I think March is when this brutal winter pattern finally breaks. I also think it becomes the start of what may be a active severe weather season in the midwest states.

Let's go back to the topic of an active February. Here's a bit of evidence for an active month:

This is the Analog from the GFS. See the big mass of red just off the coast of Alaska? That's a blocking high pressure, that will continue to creating ridging in the west (keeping California dry and in a serious drought) and it will also allow the trough to continue to camp in the middle and eastern half of the country delivering storm after storm and plenty more shots of artic air to the area. Although there isn't much of a high pressure blocking presence near Greenland to force artic air southward, the shear strength and clockwise flow of the high pressure near Alaska is enough to rush artic air into the country.

As far as I can tell, we may be dealing with a few more nice snows this winter. Models sure do point at it. If you recall, about a month ago I did say I think the deepest snow of the season will happen in Jan-Feb. Oh and another thing, if you read my winter weather forecast you would know my bold prediction was at least the threat for one snow of 6" or more. keep that in mind as we head into February ;)

Any questions or concerns feel free to message me on my new page Clayton Banks SEKYWeather. I will get back to you as soon as I can. Have a great night everyone and take care!

Early Fears About The Spring Severe Season

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! I know this is my first post in literally forever but hey what can I say? I'm one busy weather dude. ;) In all seriousness I do need to get back into the swing of producing more blog posts for sure. Anyways, let's get to it shall we?

The title of the post says it all, I have fears early on about the spring severe weather season. It was in the midst of the Polar Vortex outbreak that I realized the extent that this extremely cold winter season can have on the spring severe season. We all know that this winter has been pretty cold, no doubt but it does have a GREAT deal of an affect on the upcoming severe weather season. It happens like this every year. We all also know that thunderstorms happen in warmer weather but what most of you don't know is that you also need sufficent amounts of cold air too.

Long story short, what happens for thunderstorms to form is you need warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to rise north and collide/clash with a cool dry Canadian airmass and this colliding is what forms Severe thunderstorms. Also keep in mind that just because the season says "spring" doesn't mean we won't see some cold days either. Shots of cold air shoot south into the U.S. during the severe season and clash with warm moist air from the Gulf as stated above producing severe thunderstorm outbreaks.

We have had plenty of extremely cold air this winter season. So you ask, what are my fears exactly? My fears is that this cold air (in which Analog and seasonal models now suggest lasts through February and into March) will cause an increased risk for severe weather into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this spring season. Why aren't you worried about the warm gulf of Mexico air? That's simple, it will be the spring season. The Warm air from the Gulf will win the battle and it will ALWAYS show up right on cue. For those of you reading that need hard evidence of this before you will believe it I have some for you. If you remember, the 2011/2012 winter season was a colder than average and snowier than average season for us, now look ahead to what happened early in spring. One of the deadliest/worst tornado outbreaks to hit the state of Kentucky happened. No I'm not saying that will happen again this year but I am saying I expect nothing short of an very active severe weather season for the spring ahead. We'll have plenty of warm air and cold air clashing available. Keep an eye out for further updates as in the coming months I will have a Spring Forecast out.

Thank you all for reading, if you have any questions feel free to ask on my new Facebook Page at Clayton Banks SEKYWeather. Have a great night everyone and take care!