Hello everyone and thank you for joining me here on the blog for the release of the 2019-2020 Winter Weather Forecast. There's been a lot of talk on what this winter could bring and after much debate I have decided to publicly publish a forecast. I've predicted some extremely tough winters in my years but I can tell you this one will be my hardest by far. Let's get stared shall we?
I'm going to get super nerdy at times and if you don't understand just know that I will always break it down for you all. The first things first is we are currently in a Neutral Phase with the Ninos. This means we're not in a El Nino nor a La Nina. The neutral phase actually provides the best shot at seeing a deep trough across the eastern U.S. This would have to be accompanied by a strong ridge in the west and high pressure blocking off the west coast as well. To break that down, High pressures spin clockwise, thus forcing everything up and over them and then forces systems quickly down the eastern side. Strong High pressures are associated with blocking and when we see that in the Pacific northwest, lookout. A deep trough will be a common thing this winter with several rounds of cold and the shot for precipitation to mix in.
There are several different storm tracks that can bring several different things to us in our area. The best ones are southern stream storms. We've already seen a few of those at least threaten the area and forecast guidance and computer models continue to show the possibility of these in the long range and you know as well as I do, anything long range should be taken with a grain of salt. Here are some typical paths published by First Warn Weather out of Alabama:
The closer that Low Pressure is to Kentucky, the more likely it is the be rain. Now, with that being said you don't want the track to be too far south, that will increase odds of missing the area completely. In my professional opinion, that "snowy track" should be nudged up a bit further north.
Don't forget Clipper systems from Canada. These tend to be lighter snow makers but in my years of forecasting I've seen them drop as much as 6" of snow in these parts.
Why am I showing you these tracks? It's because this is how we're likely to see most of our systems this winter that are snow producers.
As for specifics with snowfall totals, I don't want to get too far ahead of myself and unlikely this year I'm not going to post a map. Instead I want to tell you the average snows per winter around here is anywhere from 10-16" from first flake to last. I think this year we'll be anywhere from average to slightly above average. I'm willing to say 13-20" is a good bet. Now before you go writing this down into stone please note 2
MASSIVE FACTORS. The southeastern Ridge of High Pressure, and Severe Thunderstorms.
High pressure's spin clockwise, and those usually bring nice/stable conditions. Low pressures spin counter-clockwise and typically bring unsettling weather.
Particularly in the winter months, these high pressures sit over the southeast and block a lot of the cold and snow from coming into our area as it feeds warmth from the Gulf of Mexico northward with its clockwise spin. Those high pressures get the name "Southeastern Ridge" and you'll see that below:
This year I think is different, I think we don't see much of this pesky southeastern ridge. I think we see more systems coming from the Gulf of Mexico more frequently and this can mean one of two things in the winter months, 1. Snowfall/Winter Storms, and 2. (most people are caught off guard) a legitimate
Severe Thunderstorm Threat. These southern storms can bring in so much warmth and moisture that the low pressure tracks far enough north that it can cause a severe weather outbreak around here, and oh if you haven't guessed it yet, this is my
BOLD PREDICTION (check out my other bold predictions in the paragraph below) for this winter. It's that we'll see a severe weather outbreak at some point this winter. This setup concerns me as most people think severe storms doesn't happen in the winter.
FALSE! The pattern can also produce a rather significant severe storms setup then flip to crazy cold within 24 hours of each other.
The signals for this winter are hard to ignore. Analogs point towards a comparisons to some of the greatest winters in past while others have been pointing to a very stormy one. I personally think its a crazy roller-coaster for our area this winter. I see multiple severe storm chances as well as a few big snow chances (4"+), I do also see an opportunity for a big one as well. There are several small things that are likely to break my forecast this year and our region is right in the thick of it and that's where you want to be for a big snow. Would I be surprised if we saw very little snow and severe severe outbreaks? No. Would I be surprised if it turns out very snowy? Not at all.
We're in a battle zone this year, this will be a year of having so much energy that forecast models will have a terrible time trying to handle everything and coming down to a mere 24-36 hours could be the difference between severe storms, and severe snows. Okay, I think I've rambled enough on how close of a fine line we're walking this winter. Just know I'll have my hands full going forward. On a side note, I do think we transition to spring much easier this year.
That just about does it for my official 2019-2020 Winter Weather Forecast! I was hoping to add more to it and be more specific but unfortunately due to time constraints this is all I can do for now. This much has taken me a few weeks to do! Follow me on Facebook at
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