Winter Weather Forecast 2020 Edition

 Happy Turkey Day to all of you out there. I hope this post finds you and your families warm, safe, happy, and healthy for the Holiday's! May we end this wild year with a good note and start off 2021 on an even better one! First and foremost, here's a shoutout to those who have been following this wonderful and wild weather journey of mine. This year marks 10 years! Wow! Thank you for allowing me into your homes via computer/cellular devices to do what I do best. Thank you all. Now, to the fun part, welcome to my official 2020 Winter Weather Forecast!

Let's get to things shall we? First and foremost I'm watching our FIRST winter weather system that may very well impact the Bluegrass this coming weekend into early next week. Again, we're still about 5 days out so nothing is set in stone but the major model families are all on this storm they just differ from placement and strength of the overall system. WhooHoo! It's fun to be back tracking Winter Weather! I'll have more and several updates on that storm and another wintry one that will follow that up later in the week all on my Facebook page.

This year I've been closely watching the Analogs as they are always a good guidance to how the upcoming pattern map play out in the upper levels of the atmosphere which in turn, have a direct affect on our weather. The Analogs are showing something we haven't seen in about 5 years or so and are currently lining up with years like 2010 and other years that went on to produce cold and above average snows. Even a few Winter Storms as well.

To simplify this for you all this Analog is showing High Pressure Blocking to the northeast and to the northwest in North America. (Blocking is noted by the red color). This causes a dip or buckle in the Jet Stream noted by the black lines dipping across eastern parts of the U.S. and at the base of that you see the Blue color, which is noted by stormy and cooler than average weather.

That is a pattern you'll want to see for most of the Winter if you are a lover for Snow and cold and as of right now this is the look for much of December. As for typical storm tracks we'll see this year, here's what I'm thinking in terms of that and how it could play out:

The Green track is one that would bring heavy rains to start and likely wrap around snows with some Lake Effect Snows as well. This general track usually produces anything from little to no snowflakes to 1-3" totals depending on storm strength. The Blue track is one that all snow lovers want. This track depending on storm strength can start off with rain and usually has a smooth transition to snow with high rain/snow ratios. This track is one that typically produces heavy, wet snowflakes that accumulate quickly. I've seen these tracks produce anywhere from little to no snow (again depending on storm strength and available cold air) all the way to measurements in feet!

My current thinking is overall as a whole temperatures look to be slightly above normal for the winter, but it doesn't look to be a barn burner by any means. I think December averages to be well below normal with above normal snows. I think January and February could be more of a toss up but skews warmer than normal. Watch February into March for a late Winter Storm that could have severe storms head of it and 4"+ snows a possibility behind it.

Although the past several years argue for little to nothing this winter and some folks things the stretch for no snow continues but I believe that ends this year. All the signs and signals are there that should be. This fall has been a polar opposite of the previous years we have seen with no snow and very little cold. Things are matching up very well with previous winters that went on to be good winters. I say we end up average to above average snowfall for the year and slightly above average for temperatures. Look for a total of 12-20" of snow all together with temperatures running anywhere from 0.5-1.5 degrees warmer than normal.

I also believe there is a shot that the area sees 2-4 winter storms that may boast snowfall totals, but that's only if conditions are right and we'd need anything to go in our favor in order to see anything like that this year. My bold prediction for the season is Severe thunderstorms and accumulating snows all in the same day.

Thank you for tuning in a reading the official 2020 Winter Weather Forecast! Have a great Thanksgiving and be sure to give the post a share for those wondering how this Winter season may go! Have a great extended weekend and Take care!

History In the Gulf? The Fujiwhara Effect!

 Hello everyone and here's to hoping you're making the most out of your Friday out there. Today temperatures are up a few degrees as well as the humidity, but either way it still feels much nicer than it has! Let's take a look at the tropics as history is about to be made in the Gulf of Mexico. 

What if I told you guys that two hurricanes are about to occur at the same time in the Gulf of Mexico? Well you should believe me! Come Monday/Tuesday we will likely see two hurricanes at the same time in the Gulf. 2020 is putting in some work for sure folks!

Here's an updated track and information on newly named Tropical Storm Laura!

 Tropical Storm Laura is expected to have a lot of land interaction along it's way into the gulf which will hinder it's development until Monday anyways where Laura is expected to become at least a category 1 Hurricane before landfall. Currently moving west at 18mph with sustained winds of 45mph. Notice the cone of uncertainty, if this storm gets a little north of the expected line it gives Laura a much better chance of being an even stronger storm by landfall. This is a tricky forecast so make sure all family and friends/interests anywhere in the gulf is on high alert.

 Tropical Depression 14 is still spinning getting its act together where we expect it to become named later today. Here's a current look:

Tropical Depression 14 is expected to become a Hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico before a landfall in southeastern Texas. Current forecasts call for slight weakening before landfall but I'm not sold. My official forecast is to hold hurricane strength and could even be slightly stronger.

This two storms will be the first even to "co-exist" in the Gulf of Mexico together and possibly both as Hurricanes. Not only does this look to be historical we could see a rare effect occur with these two storms passing so close to each other known as the "Fujiwhara Effect" Here's a little tidbit from the Nation Weather Service themselves: "When two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center. If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed. Two storms closer in strength can gravitate towards each other until they reach a common point and merge, or merely spin each other around for a while before shooting off on their own paths. In rare occasions, the effect is additive when the hurricanes come together, resulting in one larger storm instead of two smaller ones."

Here's a look at a graphic also posted by the Nation Weather Service showing you what exactly a Fujiwhara Effect is:

This is Hurricane Hilary and Hurricane Irwin. Hurricane Irwin on the left collided with Hurricane Hilary on the right as the two merged and later died out.

This only adds to the uncertainty between both storms on the track alone. It's possible we see this occur and have one bigger storm or a really cool experience. Let's just all agree that we'd all like to fast forward to 2021!

Back at home today like I stated above we see an increase in humidity and showers. I don't expect a wash out all day by any means but some storms could really put down the rains in a short amount of time. Like always I'll have updates and rapid updates via FB page if the situation arises. Make it a great weekend y'all and take care! 

TD 13, TD 14, Early Fall Like Continues

 Good Thursday to all! Today's post will focus more on the active tropics pattern rather than here back home. Why? Because the tropics this time of year really dictates the patterns in our neck of the woods and the second reason is the weather here back home is just too amazing and there isn't much more to add to that!

Let's start with the current threats in the tropics, as we currently have two legitimate threats to landfall. Then beyond that we have a tropical wave that has a good chance to further develop into a named system. I need you all to understand that we are on a record pace with named storms and we've likely never been so busy in the tropics and we are just now getting into the active/busy period with named storms and hurricanes.  Let's start with the legit threats:

Tropical Depression 13:

As you can see here in the "cone of uncertainty" we could be looking at a South Florida landfall as early as next Tuesday morning. Notice how the cone gets substantially bigger? The reason for that is beyond 3 days the forecast gets cloudy as it does with any other weather event. TD 13 currently has sustained winds of 35mph and is forecasted to be a hurricane by Monday morning. There is a lot of unknowns here. Mainly being look at all the island interactions possible. Those would just hinder development and make for a weaker storms but if TD13 can find a way to avoid these islands we could be looking at a serious threat to Florida and parts of the Gulf.

The other legit threat we're watching is currently a bit closer to the U.S. That would be Tropical Depression 14:

TD 14 is a interesting one as the forecast split beyond Sunday. Some call for a weaker storm that pulls west and makes landfall into central Mexico, other models continue to track this storm north/northwestward with a Texas/Louisiana landfall as a stronger storm. The north solution gives more time over the warm Gulf waters and my gut tells me that forecast is a conservative one. It's likely that if the northern track occurs this storm will likely be a hurricane at landfall. Trends are currently supportive of a northern track and stronger solution.

Current models are back and forth with these two systems trying to co-exist in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. My belief is the further north and east that TD 14 travels, the more is chokes off TD 13's ability to strengthen and based off of current conditions it appears that TD 13 has the better chance at becoming a much stronger storm. Nonetheless all interests along any of the Gulf of Mexico states should be wide open as literally all locations are in play for both storms.

Back here on the home front, amazing temperatures continue through the weekend with daily lows near 60, maybe even upper 50's in some cases with daily high into the low 80's. You will notice an uptick in humidity levels each day but nothing terrible. This will also introduce slightly higher rain chances each day but no wash out's by any means. Early next week we get into higher rain chances and temperatures getting closer to normal.

All indications are that August finishes up cooler than normal and depending on the tropics we could see that continue into September. I'm really watching the pattern as a whole that has a signal for a cooler than normal and wetter than normal Fall season all thanks to a La Nina that looks to be organizing. 

As always make it a great Thursday and take care.

70 Degrees, Severe Storms In January?

Good Tuesday afternoon everyone and thank you for stopping by. As you know with me working a full time job, and full time parent it leaves me very little time to get into the blog here and give you those full updates that you've been so accustomed to over the years, but nonetheless you have my Facebook page Clayton Banks Weather and the Remind App for weather alerts so I guess you can say I stay busy! Anyways enough about me let's dive into this crazy pattern for a moment shall we?

Some areas got in on some mixed precipitation and some down right accumulating snows to our east. Some locations just east of our areas picked up 3" of the white stuff and on radar last night it was actually a near miss for us. Looking ahead temperatures warm back up and flirt with 70 degrees by the weekend. Thursday we see some showers and cloudiness trying to sneak in but I don't expect us to see a whole lot until Friday.

Saturday comes along and the further east you live the higher temperatures spike. My official forecast put the area at 70 degrees but seeing the setup we may be under done by a few degrees and that will also play into the hands of Severe Thunderstorms later that day. There's a chance that Saturday looks darn good until Thunderstorm move in. Wind will be gusting outside of storms at 50mph.

A line of strong to severe storms will roll eastward through the area and likely into the evening hours. Main threats will be damaging winds, torrential rains, and hail. A much smaller but secondary risk of a quick spin up tornado or two is also there but again the risk is small as of now. Take a look at the radar image below.

This image is from the very latest GFS model for Saturday. With wind gusts already to 50mph, it really wouldn't take too much more to cause damage so be on the look out for that.

As of now the Storm Prediction Center has keep us just out of the SLIGHT RISK for Severe Thunderstorms area but I do fully expect that to change into the coming days as we get closer and it's likely to extend well into central part of Kentucky too. Take a look at the current Slight Risk area as it stands today:

As you can tell from the image above, areas of the deep south is likely looking at a significant severe weather event. Fortunately for us we're not expected to see anything like this here.

After we get through Saturday, SUnday is pretty quiet in terms of weather but Monday into Tuesday could be another heavy rain event while Severe Storms could also play another role. Go home Mother Nature, you're drunk! At this point I say let's go ahead and turn the page to spring what do you all think?

I do see in the long range towards the end of the month we're going to try and flip the pattern back to a more winter like setup. It's too early to be specific on anything but precipitation also looks to stay above normal during that time frame as well so that much bodes well for snow lovers.

As always tanks for tuning in, make it a great Tuesday everyone and take care!