Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope all of you are doing wonderful and are enjoying time with cherished family and friends this holiday season. As you know it's that time of year where we start taking about winter weather and snow! How cold does it get? How much snow can we see? We'll get to all of that with this winter weather forecast and I'll show you guys some model runs. We'll also hit on the Strong El Nino for this winter season and it's effects on the area. This is going to be an action packed post. Are you ready?
First off let's start with El Nino, right now we have entered what is being dubbed as a Strong El Nino. Typically El Nino phases bring warmer than normal conditions and drier than normal conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas. This year looks to be no different. Take a look at this image at what a normal El Nino winter would bring:
Let's keep in mind though that just because El Nino winters are typically drier and warmer than normal it doesn't mean we can't get some decent snows. Recently I dove into the last strong El Nino years we had and how things translated to our weather here in Kentucky. 1997- 1998 and 2015-2016 were the last strong El Nino years we had and both of which produced double digit snowfalls across a large chunk of the state. The placement was interesting too as it was much of central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the state from a bigger system moving up the east coast. Look at the snowfall totals from January 22nd - 23rd 2016:
Now, back to El Nino. Right now the warmest of waters are closer to the western coast of South America, but are currently moving further west in that "3.4" section whereas right now warmer waters are in "section 1 and 2" To sum it all up once we see the warmest waters in section 3.4, we'll start to see things change pattern wise here. Take a look at where the Nino regions are and where the warmest waters have been trending over the last 4 weeks:
Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are moving further west into that 3.4 region that you can see above. I fully expect us to start feeling to real deal effects from El Nino into January - February timeframe. December will serve kind of like a transition month that will still deliver some really cold air blasts any maybe even a sneaky threat.
There isn't a lot of data to go off of when it comes to comparing Strong El Nino's, especially when you remember there has only been 2 of them since 1997. That's over a span of 26 years. When looking at the data we do have, it bodes well for those who are fans of the phrase "I want one be storm and I'll be happy". Now, let's break this darn things down over the next 3 months.
December: This is a month that I'll label as a transition month. I see a back and forth month where we get some real deal bouts of cold and warm alike. This is a month that will run on the warmer than normal side as a whole and likely drier than normal as well. Despite that, December will feature our first accumulating snowfall. Hopefully, it's that White Christmas everyone wants!
January: We're going to roll with slightly below normal temperatures for the month when averaged out and slightly wetter than normal. This is around when we'll start to see the teleconnections try to advertise some big time systems trying to eject out of the southwest and up the east coast.
February: This has the potential to be our coldest month of the winter season. This is one that can produce a big time winter weather event but also bring a flooding threat as well. Mark this one down for colder than normal and wetter than normal.
Beyond these three months we likely have a pretty hefty fight between winter and spring. March is likely pretty wet too and El Nino tries to return to a neutral phase.
You guys know me and I'm no stranger to making bold predictions and if your a regular listener of my podcast you'll know I keep talking about El Nino and how a "drier and warmer than normal winter doesn't mean no snow or less of it." I actually think we have equal chances of seeing a slightly warmer than normal winter as we do slightly cooler than normal winter. All it takes is one big event, or lack thereof to make or break a seasonal forecast such as this one.
My bold prediction of the winter season is.... Actually there 3 of em'.
1. We see AT LEAST 1 double digit snowfall this winter
2. Somewhere across the region we see a significant Ice Storm
3. The state sees a significant flooding threat in February/March
Here's the thing, history has shown us that our region typically sees drier than normal and warmer than normal temperatures during Strong El Nino winters, BUT they also increase the risk of a big time winter weather event with 1997 and 15'-16' are prime examples and I think the same thing happens this year.
As a whole this year I think we see slightly above normal snowfall but not by much. I think it's currently more likely than not that a bulk of that total snowfall comes from one or two bigger events with several smaller ones. Take a look at my projected snowfall map below for the entire winter:
The best chance for seeing above normal snowfall will be along and east of the I-75 corridor this winter. The mountains of course will get much more than anywhere else but I like areas of southern and southeastern Kentucky to get in on a bigger storm that could easily bring half of these projected totals in one go. Historical data is on our side for a bigger storm just keep that in mind!
Western parts of the state have the greatest uncertainty for now. This is due to storm track. The track of each system is going to have a lot of say so in who gets what and how much. I can't rule out a sizeable system taking a little more northerly path bringing winter storm criteria a few times to those locations out west.
Eastern Kentucky will pose a threat for flooding later in the season and if you draw a line from far southwestern parts of the state all the way to the northeastern parts of the state you'll get the corridor of where I'm most concerned with a potential ice storm threat. That would basically run from Bowling
Green, through the Richmond area and on further northeast towards Ashland as well.
This is a winter that I'll call a "big risk, high reward" kind of thing. Strong El Nino winters are again, typically dry but that risk could come with a big reward of a significant winter storm across the region. I do want to leave you with a side note as we look ahead into the mid range, at first glance your White Christmas odds are decent from a pattern/upper atmospheric stand point as models are hinting at a deep trough across the eastern half of the country on Christmas week. (This has been something showing up for several weeks now) Let's keep those fingers crossed!
As always, thank you for reading and being apart of this journey for 15+ years now. I appreciate every single one of you guys as followers and readers but as friends as well. We continue to grow and make great memories as a team and for that I will always be grateful. It's also wonderful meeting you guys out and about asking me about the weather and saying "hello!". I look forward to meeting each and every one of you guys as we continue this journey together.
From my family to yours, Happy Thanksgiving! Stay safe, and I'll see you around!
