History In the Gulf? The Fujiwhara Effect!

 Hello everyone and here's to hoping you're making the most out of your Friday out there. Today temperatures are up a few degrees as well as the humidity, but either way it still feels much nicer than it has! Let's take a look at the tropics as history is about to be made in the Gulf of Mexico. 

What if I told you guys that two hurricanes are about to occur at the same time in the Gulf of Mexico? Well you should believe me! Come Monday/Tuesday we will likely see two hurricanes at the same time in the Gulf. 2020 is putting in some work for sure folks!

Here's an updated track and information on newly named Tropical Storm Laura!

 Tropical Storm Laura is expected to have a lot of land interaction along it's way into the gulf which will hinder it's development until Monday anyways where Laura is expected to become at least a category 1 Hurricane before landfall. Currently moving west at 18mph with sustained winds of 45mph. Notice the cone of uncertainty, if this storm gets a little north of the expected line it gives Laura a much better chance of being an even stronger storm by landfall. This is a tricky forecast so make sure all family and friends/interests anywhere in the gulf is on high alert.

 Tropical Depression 14 is still spinning getting its act together where we expect it to become named later today. Here's a current look:

Tropical Depression 14 is expected to become a Hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico before a landfall in southeastern Texas. Current forecasts call for slight weakening before landfall but I'm not sold. My official forecast is to hold hurricane strength and could even be slightly stronger.

This two storms will be the first even to "co-exist" in the Gulf of Mexico together and possibly both as Hurricanes. Not only does this look to be historical we could see a rare effect occur with these two storms passing so close to each other known as the "Fujiwhara Effect" Here's a little tidbit from the Nation Weather Service themselves: "When two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center. If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed. Two storms closer in strength can gravitate towards each other until they reach a common point and merge, or merely spin each other around for a while before shooting off on their own paths. In rare occasions, the effect is additive when the hurricanes come together, resulting in one larger storm instead of two smaller ones."

Here's a look at a graphic also posted by the Nation Weather Service showing you what exactly a Fujiwhara Effect is:

This is Hurricane Hilary and Hurricane Irwin. Hurricane Irwin on the left collided with Hurricane Hilary on the right as the two merged and later died out.

This only adds to the uncertainty between both storms on the track alone. It's possible we see this occur and have one bigger storm or a really cool experience. Let's just all agree that we'd all like to fast forward to 2021!

Back at home today like I stated above we see an increase in humidity and showers. I don't expect a wash out all day by any means but some storms could really put down the rains in a short amount of time. Like always I'll have updates and rapid updates via FB page if the situation arises. Make it a great weekend y'all and take care! 

TD 13, TD 14, Early Fall Like Continues

 Good Thursday to all! Today's post will focus more on the active tropics pattern rather than here back home. Why? Because the tropics this time of year really dictates the patterns in our neck of the woods and the second reason is the weather here back home is just too amazing and there isn't much more to add to that!

Let's start with the current threats in the tropics, as we currently have two legitimate threats to landfall. Then beyond that we have a tropical wave that has a good chance to further develop into a named system. I need you all to understand that we are on a record pace with named storms and we've likely never been so busy in the tropics and we are just now getting into the active/busy period with named storms and hurricanes.  Let's start with the legit threats:

Tropical Depression 13:

As you can see here in the "cone of uncertainty" we could be looking at a South Florida landfall as early as next Tuesday morning. Notice how the cone gets substantially bigger? The reason for that is beyond 3 days the forecast gets cloudy as it does with any other weather event. TD 13 currently has sustained winds of 35mph and is forecasted to be a hurricane by Monday morning. There is a lot of unknowns here. Mainly being look at all the island interactions possible. Those would just hinder development and make for a weaker storms but if TD13 can find a way to avoid these islands we could be looking at a serious threat to Florida and parts of the Gulf.

The other legit threat we're watching is currently a bit closer to the U.S. That would be Tropical Depression 14:

TD 14 is a interesting one as the forecast split beyond Sunday. Some call for a weaker storm that pulls west and makes landfall into central Mexico, other models continue to track this storm north/northwestward with a Texas/Louisiana landfall as a stronger storm. The north solution gives more time over the warm Gulf waters and my gut tells me that forecast is a conservative one. It's likely that if the northern track occurs this storm will likely be a hurricane at landfall. Trends are currently supportive of a northern track and stronger solution.

Current models are back and forth with these two systems trying to co-exist in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. My belief is the further north and east that TD 14 travels, the more is chokes off TD 13's ability to strengthen and based off of current conditions it appears that TD 13 has the better chance at becoming a much stronger storm. Nonetheless all interests along any of the Gulf of Mexico states should be wide open as literally all locations are in play for both storms.

Back here on the home front, amazing temperatures continue through the weekend with daily lows near 60, maybe even upper 50's in some cases with daily high into the low 80's. You will notice an uptick in humidity levels each day but nothing terrible. This will also introduce slightly higher rain chances each day but no wash out's by any means. Early next week we get into higher rain chances and temperatures getting closer to normal.

All indications are that August finishes up cooler than normal and depending on the tropics we could see that continue into September. I'm really watching the pattern as a whole that has a signal for a cooler than normal and wetter than normal Fall season all thanks to a La Nina that looks to be organizing. 

As always make it a great Thursday and take care.