Happy Turkey Day to all of you out there. I hope this post finds you and your families warm, safe, happy, and healthy for the Holiday's! May we end this wild year with a good note and start off 2021 on an even better one! First and foremost, here's a shoutout to those who have been following this wonderful and wild weather journey of mine. This year marks 10 years! Wow! Thank you for allowing me into your homes via computer/cellular devices to do what I do best. Thank you all. Now, to the fun part, welcome to my official 2020 Winter Weather Forecast!
Let's get to things shall we? First and foremost I'm watching our FIRST winter weather system that may very well impact the Bluegrass this coming weekend into early next week. Again, we're still about 5 days out so nothing is set in stone but the major model families are all on this storm they just differ from placement and strength of the overall system. WhooHoo! It's fun to be back tracking Winter Weather! I'll have more and several updates on that storm and another wintry one that will follow that up later in the week all on my Facebook page.
This year I've been closely watching the Analogs as they are always a good guidance to how the upcoming pattern map play out in the upper levels of the atmosphere which in turn, have a direct affect on our weather. The Analogs are showing something we haven't seen in about 5 years or so and are currently lining up with years like 2010 and other years that went on to produce cold and above average snows. Even a few Winter Storms as well.
To simplify this for you all this Analog is showing High Pressure Blocking to the northeast and to the northwest in North America. (Blocking is noted by the red color). This causes a dip or buckle in the Jet Stream noted by the black lines dipping across eastern parts of the U.S. and at the base of that you see the Blue color, which is noted by stormy and cooler than average weather.
That is a pattern you'll want to see for most of the Winter if you are a lover for Snow and cold and as of right now this is the look for much of December. As for typical storm tracks we'll see this year, here's what I'm thinking in terms of that and how it could play out:
The Green track is one that would bring heavy rains to start and likely wrap around snows with some Lake Effect Snows as well. This general track usually produces anything from little to no snowflakes to 1-3" totals depending on storm strength. The Blue track is one that all snow lovers want. This track depending on storm strength can start off with rain and usually has a smooth transition to snow with high rain/snow ratios. This track is one that typically produces heavy, wet snowflakes that accumulate quickly. I've seen these tracks produce anywhere from little to no snow (again depending on storm strength and available cold air) all the way to measurements in feet!
My current thinking is overall as a whole temperatures look to be slightly above normal for the winter, but it doesn't look to be a barn burner by any means. I think December averages to be well below normal with above normal snows. I think January and February could be more of a toss up but skews warmer than normal. Watch February into March for a late Winter Storm that could have severe storms head of it and 4"+ snows a possibility behind it.
Although the past several years argue for little to nothing this winter and some folks things the stretch for no snow continues but I believe that ends this year. All the signs and signals are there that should be. This fall has been a polar opposite of the previous years we have seen with no snow and very little cold. Things are matching up very well with previous winters that went on to be good winters. I say we end up average to above average snowfall for the year and slightly above average for temperatures. Look for a total of 12-20" of snow all together with temperatures running anywhere from 0.5-1.5 degrees warmer than normal.
I also believe there is a shot that the area sees 2-4 winter storms that may boast snowfall totals, but that's only if conditions are right and we'd need anything to go in our favor in order to see anything like that this year. My bold prediction for the season is Severe thunderstorms and accumulating snows all in the same day.
Thank you for tuning in a reading the official 2020 Winter Weather Forecast! Have a great Thanksgiving and be sure to give the post a share for those wondering how this Winter season may go! Have a great extended weekend and Take care!
