First Snow Of 2013!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this cold Sunday! We've had a few systems move in one right after another. That put us in position for a very light accumulation of snow both times with the last one being slightly more in the way of accumulations. With that being said we have another system set to move in New Years Eve into New Years Day.

The models have a bad handle on this system. They say temperatures will be too warm and keep the whole state in the rain side. Here's an example of that coming from the GFS Precip model:

This is hour 39 of the forecast coming from the GFS 12Z. You can see how far northward this model keeps the snow. I just don't see this happening. Now if this model brought the snow line about 150 miles further south I could see that, but this is way too far north.

The NAM model even shows the same thing. I think they're basing this off temperatures and thats that. Temperatures down here will be a tough above freezing and thats going to set up shop for a brief start as rain this quickly change to a mix then to snow. I do think accumulations is very likely from this and central Kentucky has a better chance than us. I'm not saying that we're not getting anything but I am also saying this: we're still too far out to touch up on snowfall total numbers from this thing. ALOT can change and ALOT WILL change before this thing gets in here.

Depending on the track of this system this could affect some school systems from starting back on regular schedule. We could be looking at widespead school closings for much of central and eastern Kentucky. That's something I'll be watching as we get closer into the day tomorrow and New Years day.

Like always you can watch for any updates on my Facebook and on Twitter. If you want better updates it's best to check out my facebook as I have more room to go into detail. Have a great evening everyone and a Happy New Year! Take care and stay safe! :)

Winter Storm Update:

Hello everyone and Merry Christmas Eve to all of you out there, I bring you this update for our next winter storm that looks to affect our area starting Christmas night into the following day on Wednesday. We'll start out as rain Christmas night and by Wednesday afternoon/evening we'll have a very quick change over to snow and some light accumulations are expected.

Let's get to it shall we? ;) Now with the above being said I do have to tell you the mean effects from this storm will be felt in the western parts of the state. The GFS and NAM models are trending a bit further east with the storm and with that in mind increases the threats ever so slightly further into central and eastern Kentucky. That is the reason why when you'll look at my First call for snowfall map below, you will think "This guy is crazy, other weather people isn't even saying this much.":

Now, in the 4-8 inch area of western Kentucky there could be some locally higher amounts of 10 inches in some areas. The further east you go will be the more rain that you will see, thus keeping snowfall totals in check. The 1-2 inch area is still un-certain due to the fact that the track of the low is still uncertain. If this storm moves further east (as I expect it to do so) We could be in for a bit more than that shown above.

There is a WINTER STORM WATCH out for far western Kentucky. Here's the map:

Since I do expect the low pressure to move further east, I also expect to see these Winter Strom watches to be extended at least a few counties further to the east.

I will be updating via Facebook and Twitter as much as possible on this storm. Have a great Christmas Eve and Christmas and Merry Christmas to all of you. Take care! :)

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! We have a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect for southern and southeastern and of course eastern Kentucky starting at 10pm tonight until 3pm tomorrow.

Here's the scoop: The potent cold fron is passing over us as you read this and this will bring very cold temperatures to the area and gusty damaging winds up to 45mph. As this system moves to the Great Lakes it will create Lake Effect Snows coming from Lake Michigan. How? Well Lake Michigan is completely unfrozen. It's warm actually and with this cold air moving over a warm, large body of water and that will create snow. This snow will then reach as far south as Kentucky and could put down a light accumulation for much of central and Eastern Kentucky. (Hints the Winter Weather Advisory.)

I still expect around one inch here but local areas could see as much as 3 inches as we could get in on the more persistant bands of snow. What I mean by that is basically the longer and the heavier it snow, DUH! The more snow you'll see ;) It's a no brainer right? :P

Now with these gusty winds and the snow falling that will make for rough driving conditions and at times snow could come down so hard we could see white out conditions too. Blowing snow is a concern not only for the snow coming down but these winds could be so strong that it can pick up snow off the ground and blow it around as well.

I will have several more updates as needed through out the evening and probably overnight as well. I'm the weather dude here and I'm in it for the long haul and If you have any questions don't be afraid to tweet or send them to me on facebook! It's what I'm here for! Have a great Thursday everyone, take care and be safe! :)

White Christmas Odds Update!

Hello everyone and good Tuesday to you! Welcome back to the blog for this White Christmas Odds Update post! As you know we had that small severe weather threat yesterday and all of that has now gone by the wayside and we're a mear 15 degrees cooler from this time yesterday.

Now to the good stuff. May of you have been blowing up my inbox on Facebook with questions on our snow chances for the winter along with questions like "Will we have a white Christmas this year?" Now I know we'rea week away and I'm no stranger to making predictions from a week or more out ;). Last week I had our chances for a White Christmas at 61% and it was only looking to go up from there.

To answer the first question of When will we see the snow? Well we have a potent system and cold front moving in here Thursday and we're likely to go from 50 degree temperatures with thunder and rain to 20s and 30s with snow in just a few hours time. Thursday night into Friday morning a good light accumulation of snow is a good bet with snow squalls and shower soming down along with 30-40 mph winds making the temperatures feel like at or near 10 degrees.

Now to the second question, Will we have a White Christmas? Well I know the past few weeks have been looking great and they still are but the models are agruing on the timing of these storm systems. They now say late Christmas day we could see snow flying. Because of the fact that we're still a week out I'm keeping our white Christmas odds above 50/50 right at 57%. Yeah thats down a bit but thats because the chance in the forecast. Here's what one model points at for that Christmas day forecast:

That look right there would probably bring a brief rain then change to mix and eventually snow as we work into Christmas Day evening.

As always I'll keep an eye on the situation and give you plenty of updates as we get closer. No matter if we have that White Chirstmas or not I hope you all have a Merry Christmas! :) Have a great Tuesday everyone and take care! :)

Wet Weekend, Big Storm To Follow

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this Thursday evening. As I informed you on my facebook page I will not be online at all for much of the day tomorrow as I have yet another doctor appointment with a surgeon up at UK Hospital. Therefore I give you this full update tonight.

Tomorrow, temperatures will start off in the upper 20s and as we go through the day temperatures will warm to an over-all above average state of right around 54 degrees.Saturday into Saturday night our rain chances increase as we'll have a 50% chance with high temperatures topping out around 58 degrees. Sunday we'll have a high temperature of 60 degrees with a 50% chance of rain. Monday is when things will get interesting as we should know the track of this next big system, we'll have a high in the mid 50s with a 40% chance of rain.

I know over the past few days I've been posting pictures of the GFS model and what it was thinking. Well now it's changed so much (as expected) I'm not even going to post it anymore untill it gets its act together. The Canadian and European models look good for a set up for a big storm to our southeast bringing rain to snow on Tuesday into Wednesday.

I do want to show you all what Accuweather has said and this will tell you alot that I'm not the only guy all over this storm:

Not too sure on if this will be a full blown winter storm, a change from rain to snow or what as of now, but things should get lined up and we should know much more in the coming days. Sunday is the target day for me and I hope to know where this thing is going to go.

Right around Monday or Tuesday I should have another update on our White Christmas odds. Have a great Thursday evening everyone and take care! :)

White Christmas Thoughts

Hello and good Tuesday to everyone out there! We had that potent cold front move through yesterday and now today we're seeing temperatures struggle to the upper 30s for highs! We'll struggle through the rest of the week as well as tomorrow high temperatures will hold in the upper 30s to low 40s. Thursday highs in the upper 40s and Friday highs in the low 50s in which all of those day will feature morning time lows in the 20s.

Enough with the next few days, I know as well as you do that the title of this post 'White Christmas Thoughts' is what pulled you into reading this ;). I updated my faebook status telling you that last week we had a 52% chance for a White Christmas and today I'm here to say we've now got a 61% chance. Thats a big jump and if it wasn't for the strong readings the models are giving me it wouldn't be this high.

I'm seeing the possibility of a winter storm to creep through the Ohio Valley next week around mid week, and I'm saying this because it cannot go north due to the fact that we have that blocking high pressure in eastern Canada and in Greenland. If you need a refresher of what a blocking high pressure is refer back to the winter weather forecast posts.  That blocking acts like a shield. It doesn't let anything in and actually almost reflects things in a way. Anyways with it being in place that forces any system to stay south of the blocking high pressure allowing the cold air to also be in place therefore becoming a winter storm for our area.

The models also talk about a few systems moving in during and around Christmas week. If we can get lucky we may be able to see one of them move in here and maybe bring us that White Christmas that everyone wants.

On a different note the guys at liveweatherblogs.com have updated their winter weather outlook yesterday and take a look at what they're calling for around our area:

Yeah, you're reading that map right. That says 20-30% above average snowfall for this winter for our area. Hopefully that will keep the moral up of several people whom have complained of not seeing any snow so far this December. Again, chill out. It'll happen soon enough ;).

Have a great Tuesday everyone and take care! :)

Winter Creepin' Into The Picture

Hello everyone and as always welcome back to the blog! Like I promised on my Facebook I am here to give you all an update on the state of our winter season and any snow odds in our near future. First off I want to start with today's weather. Today we'll see rounds of rain and storms off and on through out the day as a previously stalled out front that was to our south works northward across the Ohio Valley and a wave of low pressure works up along that front.

Tomorrow we get yet another system that works in here and could bring up to an additional 2 inches of rain in some spots! Temperatures will come crashing down quick, fast, and in a hurry behind that potent cold front. A 20-30 degree drop in temperatures can and probably will be noted at some point from the morning hours through the evening tomorrow. Now with that being said, there is some snow chances with it. Not much but hey it's something.

Monday night into Tuesday morning there is a small chance of having some accumulating snows in our area but just a dusting at the most if that, but there is a good chance we an see at least some snowfalkes fly! Take a look at my first call for snowfall map!

Yeah I know, it's not much of anything but don't give up on witner yet! Please! The state of our winter is still in good shape as the last half of December is looking good for a few chances for some big time storms to roll across our reigon.

I'm actually seeing models pointing at the chance for a big Winter Weather maker to roll across the Ohio Valley between December 16th-20th. Yeah I know thats just about a week away and that is something to watch in the coming days! ;)

This is the possibility of seeing any kind of precip in our area for the 16th. This shows a 10% chance around here and with us being about a week out you have to consider this is actually decent odds to be this far out.

More on all of this stuff in the coming days! Have a great Sunday and take care everyone! :)

Gorgeous Start To December, Winter To Take Over

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this gorgeous December day. If you follow my posts on Facebook, you will know that I issued a statement to all those folks whom are jumping on the "It's 70 degrees in December, let's call off Winter" bandwagon. 60 and 70 degree temperatures are not uncommon here in Kentucky in December and a matter of fact, two thirds of all Decembers in record featured temperatures in the 60s at least at some point in December here.

I wanted to tell you please get out and enjoy this 70 degree temperature day because this will be the last nice day for a while. Tomorrow a cold fron will move in bringing locally heavy rains and cooler temperatures. Most location will remain in the mid 40s for highs. This weekend looks pretty wild here. Friday a system moves in bringing yet more rain in which we need because we're getting pretty dry here once again.

Late in the weekend we'll get another system moving in here and it looks to be the bigger of the two. This one looks to start off as rain and on the back side a wintry aspect is showing up. Some of you may have heard of the 7th-14th is the days I've been watching out for. That still looks to hold true as of now for it being the first real shot at winter weather around here.

I have a big announcement to make and it is I have something I'm doing just for Christmas. Everyone wants a white Christmas right? Well once a week untill a week before Christmas I will update you all on the chances of a white Christmas then in the last 7 days I will update you everyday. Since we're on the topic of a White Christmas take a look at what the CFS model is calling for in the way of snow here on Christmas:

With that being said above, we could be looking at a few inches of snow on the ground for Christmas morning. That should get you're Christmas spirit really going! Right now I give our chances of a white Christmas right around 53%. Why so low? Well first off we're still at least 3 weeks away and thats ALOT of time for things to change and it will change.

Have a great day everyone and take care! :)