The models have a bad handle on this system. They say temperatures will be too warm and keep the whole state in the rain side. Here's an example of that coming from the GFS Precip model:
This is hour 39 of the forecast coming from the GFS 12Z. You can see how far northward this model keeps the snow. I just don't see this happening. Now if this model brought the snow line about 150 miles further south I could see that, but this is way too far north.
The NAM model even shows the same thing. I think they're basing this off temperatures and thats that. Temperatures down here will be a tough above freezing and thats going to set up shop for a brief start as rain this quickly change to a mix then to snow. I do think accumulations is very likely from this and central Kentucky has a better chance than us. I'm not saying that we're not getting anything but I am also saying this: we're still too far out to touch up on snowfall total numbers from this thing. ALOT can change and ALOT WILL change before this thing gets in here.
Depending on the track of this system this could affect some school systems from starting back on regular schedule. We could be looking at widespead school closings for much of central and eastern Kentucky. That's something I'll be watching as we get closer into the day tomorrow and New Years day.
Like always you can watch for any updates on my Facebook and on Twitter. If you want better updates it's best to check out my facebook as I have more room to go into detail. Have a great evening everyone and a Happy New Year! Take care and stay safe! :)
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