Looking Ahead To The Long Range

Hello everyone and good Sunday evening to you. We're fresh off the best snow (so far) of the winter season and we managed to follow that up with high temperatures in the upper 40's and a few low 50's out there. I guess you can certainly call this a wild weekend. Tonight we'll see another artic front moving in with a band of light snow behind it. This could bring up to an inch of snow. The best chacnes for accumulation looks to be south of I-64 and along and east of I-75. Timing of the front and snow looks to occur early Monday morning.

What does it look like further down the road? I recently had the chance to check seasonal models earlier today and saw some interesting stuff. First off, the month of February looks cold and snowy from the last check of the CFS models. March is throwing some mixed signals but at the same time, it trends a warm up. I think March is when this brutal winter pattern finally breaks. I also think it becomes the start of what may be a active severe weather season in the midwest states.

Let's go back to the topic of an active February. Here's a bit of evidence for an active month:

This is the Analog from the GFS. See the big mass of red just off the coast of Alaska? That's a blocking high pressure, that will continue to creating ridging in the west (keeping California dry and in a serious drought) and it will also allow the trough to continue to camp in the middle and eastern half of the country delivering storm after storm and plenty more shots of artic air to the area. Although there isn't much of a high pressure blocking presence near Greenland to force artic air southward, the shear strength and clockwise flow of the high pressure near Alaska is enough to rush artic air into the country.

As far as I can tell, we may be dealing with a few more nice snows this winter. Models sure do point at it. If you recall, about a month ago I did say I think the deepest snow of the season will happen in Jan-Feb. Oh and another thing, if you read my winter weather forecast you would know my bold prediction was at least the threat for one snow of 6" or more. keep that in mind as we head into February ;)

Any questions or concerns feel free to message me on my new page Clayton Banks SEKYWeather. I will get back to you as soon as I can. Have a great night everyone and take care!