Early Fears About The Spring Severe Season

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! I know this is my first post in literally forever but hey what can I say? I'm one busy weather dude. ;) In all seriousness I do need to get back into the swing of producing more blog posts for sure. Anyways, let's get to it shall we?

The title of the post says it all, I have fears early on about the spring severe weather season. It was in the midst of the Polar Vortex outbreak that I realized the extent that this extremely cold winter season can have on the spring severe season. We all know that this winter has been pretty cold, no doubt but it does have a GREAT deal of an affect on the upcoming severe weather season. It happens like this every year. We all also know that thunderstorms happen in warmer weather but what most of you don't know is that you also need sufficent amounts of cold air too.

Long story short, what happens for thunderstorms to form is you need warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico to rise north and collide/clash with a cool dry Canadian airmass and this colliding is what forms Severe thunderstorms. Also keep in mind that just because the season says "spring" doesn't mean we won't see some cold days either. Shots of cold air shoot south into the U.S. during the severe season and clash with warm moist air from the Gulf as stated above producing severe thunderstorm outbreaks.

We have had plenty of extremely cold air this winter season. So you ask, what are my fears exactly? My fears is that this cold air (in which Analog and seasonal models now suggest lasts through February and into March) will cause an increased risk for severe weather into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this spring season. Why aren't you worried about the warm gulf of Mexico air? That's simple, it will be the spring season. The Warm air from the Gulf will win the battle and it will ALWAYS show up right on cue. For those of you reading that need hard evidence of this before you will believe it I have some for you. If you remember, the 2011/2012 winter season was a colder than average and snowier than average season for us, now look ahead to what happened early in spring. One of the deadliest/worst tornado outbreaks to hit the state of Kentucky happened. No I'm not saying that will happen again this year but I am saying I expect nothing short of an very active severe weather season for the spring ahead. We'll have plenty of warm air and cold air clashing available. Keep an eye out for further updates as in the coming months I will have a Spring Forecast out.

Thank you all for reading, if you have any questions feel free to ask on my new Facebook Page at Clayton Banks SEKYWeather. Have a great night everyone and take care!