Winter Weather Forecast Part 1 of 3.

Good day everyone and welcome back to the blog! This is the day everyone has been waiting for a long time. I've been asked all the time "Do you think this winter will be bad?" I always said" I can't say right now I'm working on my Winter Weather Forecast." Well finally it's here! No more waiting here it is enjoy and let me know what you think!

Let's start with the El Nino. We're currently in a El Nino phase and what that is its warmer than normal waters off the western coast of South America in the Pacific ocean. Now at this point your probably saying "Okay, so what does this have to do with our weather here for the winter?" The answer is very simple.. Everything. Here's one example on what El Nino does with our weather patterns:

El Nino splits the Jet Stream into 2 seperate Jet Streams. One northerly and southerly. The northerly jet will bring all those cold shots down from Canada and as the southerly goes along Texas, Louisiana and other Gulf states, it brings in tons of moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico and right where the red "L" is on the map is where those jet streams becomes one again and thats where big snowstorms frequently occur with the very cold air and the abundant moisture. Like the picture says above this is the set up for a Weak to Moderate El Nino. If your a snow lover you want a weak El Nino.

Another factor into snowfall is blocking. Bolcking is simply a large area of high pressure sitting over Greenland and Alaska and doesn't move for long periods of time. The blocking over alaska allows the very cold Canadian air to dive deep into the southern United States, sometimes as far as Florida. What that does is creates a ridge in the west letting cold air dive down shot after shot deep into the United States and during winter that could put our temperatures in the low teens to single didgets overnight and sometimes as high temperatures.

Here's another example like the one shown above but from the good folks at Tornado Titans:

This is basically the same thing and remember the most northern jet stream brings all that very cold artic air down with it and the southerly jet sream brings the mositure from the Gulf of Mexico.

Now for the maps you all have been waiting for: Here's the 2012-2013 Winer Weather Forecast from Accuweather.com:

The folks at Accuweather are calling for an above average snowfall for our half of the state. Looking good so far right? ;)

Here's what I think for the average temperatures during the winter season:

I believe the further west you live this winter will be the closer to normal temperature wise you will be, and as you can tell I have the higher elevations of northeastern Kentucky and northern Kentucky around Covington and including Lexington at 1-3 degrees below normal. Then from our location westward then shifting northwestward including Louisville at 0-2 degrees below normal. I do believe that the several cold shots coming in from the northwest during the winter will make for a colder than normal winter. Now these lines will probably change by time I make my 2nd update and the 3rd and final Winter Weather Forecast update.

Now, here is the main course and this will answer any questions you all have about this winter, but before I show you this Image I want all of you to know this is just a PRELIMINARY FORECAST.
This is subject to change and WILL CHANGE. Thats why on the title you'll notice I put Part 1 of 3. I will be making changes through out rest the fall season.

Here it is. My first call for total snowfall map for the Winter of 2012-2013!

I know it's hard to see but folks thats 24-29" inches of snow I'm forecasting for our area. 30-35" for the higher elevations of eastern Kentucky, 16-21" in the north central parts of the state this does include Louisville. 19-23" for the south central part of the state including Bowling Green. Last but not least, 13-18" of snow for the western parts of the state including Paducah.

Yeah thats right folks. We could be talking about alot of snow here this winter. The average snowfall in Lexington is about 13" and maybe 18-20 here. Remember this is just a first estimate and if things holds the same with the El nino, and blocking we could be in for a wild ride this winter. I'll probably come down with the snowfall totals in the next updates although I'm not completely sure yet but I do know that they will change at least a little bit, but thats something to look out for.

Now with all of that above being said, I do believe there could be a few situations where we could see 6" or more of snow with any given system that moves through. Most snows will likely be 1-2 inches like usual, but like I just said with the way El Nino has been bouncing in and out of the Neutral and Weak phases we could see a little bit of everything. Personally I think El Nino may make a comeback. "This is the hardest winter to predict in several years past." This statement coming from several Meteorologists.

Please note, if El Nino conditions fade away and doesn't come back we may not get squat this winter. If it turns into a La Nina phase (which it is unlikely nor expected to do.), or a Neutral Phase then our snow chances could be ruined.

Thanks for reading everyone and let me know what you think with a tweet @ClaytonBanks1 a hit on  the ol' Facebook, or leave a comment on this blog post just be sure to leave me your name so I can thank you! I'll be giving shout outs on Facebook and Twitter for those who does leave a comment on this post on the blog or if you send me a message on what you liked and what you would like to see for next time. Thank you everyone for everything, without you this wouldn't be possible. All of you are the exact reason why I do this! Have a great day everyone and God Bless :)