Good Thursday to all! Today's post will focus more on the active tropics pattern rather than here back home. Why? Because the tropics this time of year really dictates the patterns in our neck of the woods and the second reason is the weather here back home is just too amazing and there isn't much more to add to that!
Let's start with the current threats in the tropics, as we currently have two legitimate threats to landfall. Then beyond that we have a tropical wave that has a good chance to further develop into a named system. I need you all to understand that we are on a record pace with named storms and we've likely never been so busy in the tropics and we are just now getting into the active/busy period with named storms and hurricanes. Let's start with the legit threats:
Tropical Depression 13:
As you can see here in the "cone of uncertainty" we could be looking at a South Florida landfall as early as next Tuesday morning. Notice how the cone gets substantially bigger? The reason for that is beyond 3 days the forecast gets cloudy as it does with any other weather event. TD 13 currently has sustained winds of 35mph and is forecasted to be a hurricane by Monday morning. There is a lot of unknowns here. Mainly being look at all the island interactions possible. Those would just hinder development and make for a weaker storms but if TD13 can find a way to avoid these islands we could be looking at a serious threat to Florida and parts of the Gulf.
The other legit threat we're watching is currently a bit closer to the U.S. That would be Tropical Depression 14:
TD 14 is a interesting one as the forecast split beyond Sunday. Some call for a weaker storm that pulls west and makes landfall into central Mexico, other models continue to track this storm north/northwestward with a Texas/Louisiana landfall as a stronger storm. The north solution gives more time over the warm Gulf waters and my gut tells me that forecast is a conservative one. It's likely that if the northern track occurs this storm will likely be a hurricane at landfall. Trends are currently supportive of a northern track and stronger solution.
Current models are back and forth with these two systems trying to co-exist in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. My belief is the further north and east that TD 14 travels, the more is chokes off TD 13's ability to strengthen and based off of current conditions it appears that TD 13 has the better chance at becoming a much stronger storm. Nonetheless all interests along any of the Gulf of Mexico states should be wide open as literally all locations are in play for both storms.
Back here on the home front, amazing temperatures continue through the weekend with daily lows near 60, maybe even upper 50's in some cases with daily high into the low 80's. You will notice an uptick in humidity levels each day but nothing terrible. This will also introduce slightly higher rain chances each day but no wash out's by any means. Early next week we get into higher rain chances and temperatures getting closer to normal.
All indications are that August finishes up cooler than normal and depending on the tropics we could see that continue into September. I'm really watching the pattern as a whole that has a signal for a cooler than normal and wetter than normal Fall season all thanks to a La Nina that looks to be organizing.
As always make it a great Thursday and take care.
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