Winter Weather Forecast Part 1!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! Yes it's that time of year with summer winding down and we start to head full steam into fall. All of you know what's next, we tend to skip the fall season and start talking about winter! Well in this post it's about the winter ahead, sorry fall! ;) Anyways for those who are looking at this winter forecast for the first time ever since following me, I always try to go in depth and break everything down for all of you that don't understand the weather lingo as well. I do want to remind everyone that Some of these models are new for this years post. This is probably very new to most of you so if you have any questions leave a comment with your name and question and I'll get with you as soon as possible! Let's get to it shall we?

First off I want all of you to look at what the Nino models are talking about for the winter ahead:

Okay in the image above it shows if we'll be in a El Nino phase, La Nina phase, or a Neutral phase. Anything below -0.5 is La Nina, above 0.5 is El Nino, and anything between -0.5 and 0.5 is a Neutral phase. If you love the snow and cold you want to be in a weak El Nino. Basically just barely above 0.5 on the graph. Notice how starting in January into February we become in the weak El Nino? That suggests an active last half of the winter season. Snow, rain, or both? Not sure yet but I can say in the graph above its very supportive of snow coming our way in the last half of winter.

This next image is from the CFS model and it's a seasonal model which throws a number out there on temperatures for a three month period. The seasonal models normally have a decent handle on temperatures but not on precipitation. The one I'm showing you below is of temperatures only and for the months of Jan-Feb-March. Take a look:

Notice the blue color over much of the area? That's suggesting temperatures for those three months to be below normal for that time of year. Jan and Feb are normally our coldest and most active months of winter and this seasonal model says hey, once again you can expect more of the same. Here's a look at what the same model says for the month of Jan in 2014 alone precipitation wise:

This model shows a wetter than average Jan is on tap. Oh remember the other model from above? I hope so because I'll sum it up this way because it's that easy. Colder than average + wetter than average = models suggest plenty of snow for the month of Jan. Will this hold true? That's a good question and we won't know until we get closer. These are only models and just because they trend one thing doesn't mean it will happen so please do not take these to heart. These models can say something totally different tomorrow so be aware, but I do honestly believe that up to this point the chances for plenty of snow this winter are good... For now.

Models also point at an early start to winter as well. Some models point towards 30 degree temperatures for Thanksgiving Day! They also hint at some possible snowflakes on that day as well. Just because it calls for some early flakes doesn't mean we're going to see accumulations. Also keep in mind that with an early start to winter would also mean we'll probably get some warmer than average days in there as well. We're still so far out it's still hard to tell but that's what's on the plate as of now!

One last thing before I end the post, yes it's another picture but this one is a lot harder to read than the others I've posted. This one is a analog model. This form of forecasting is more complicated and a lot harder to master. For example. All weather events this year up to this point gets compared will all other years up to the same day to see if it matches any previous years. This form of forecasting has been a good way of predicting winters ahead and here's one that came out a few days ago:

 Now this analog model is pointing at this winter being much like the winter of 1993. If anyone is old enough to remember what happened in the winter of 1993 you would know that a big blizzard moved through much of Kentucky and surrounding states dumping more than a FOOT of snow in southern and southeastern Kentucky with snow drifts as high as 4 FEET. That winter featured several cold shots and abundant shots for snow. Also other years that this analog model points at have also had really snowy winters.

So to put it all in a nutshell, no the folks at the Farmers Almanac aren't as crazy as you thought. Even your local weather dude is calling for a colder than average and wetter than average winter with plenty of chances for accumulating snows. This is what I expect so far, this may change between this post and the part 2 of the forecast, I want to thank all of you for taking the time to read this post! I do plan on making a part two and this one should feature more maps but more in the way of home-made maps on how much snow is possible. It isn't set in stone yet on the homemade maps but just keep and eye out on the new facebook page at Clayton Banks SEKYWeather and I'll be sure to announce if those maps will be in on part 2 and any new announcements. Comments and questions are all appreciated in which I can answer either on my new page or in the comment section below. I do want to ask that if any of you want to ask me anything on my new page post it on my wall as your question might be the same that somebody was going to ask.

Have a great Monday everyone and take care! :)