Tornado Outbreak

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this very stormy day. Things sure got rough as a few supercell thunderstorms got out on their own and produced multiple tornado warnings and confirmed tornadoes as well. The last I head was 5 confirmed tornadoes and that number is very likely to grow into the day tomorrow as the NWS is able to get out and check out the damage.

Tonight and tomorrow will be very quiet with mostly clear skies and high temperatures into the mid and upper 60s for some, but on Friday we do it all over again and I am a bit on the worried side as the air masses will be clashing right over our area and that spells disaster for another severe weather outbreak in the making.

Here's what the Storm Prediction Center thinks for Friday on the categorical outlook that is baised on either slight risk, moderate risk, or high risk:

Thats another slight risk and for the whole state of Kentucky! Now this next image is a better look at the chances of severe thunderstorms, This one is the probabilistic look on things:

Look at the 30% range. Now I honestly think that around the 30% area will be a moderate risk by time the day starts Friday. This outbreak sure does have the potential for being worse than today's so I'll be keeping a very close evey on it as we get closer and through out the day tomorrow.

Have a great night everyone and take care! :)

TORNADO WATCH!

Hello everyone and good Wednesday to you. We have alot going on in the weather world today as I will be very busy updating you on the situation all day long. Let's get to it folks, A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA..

Thats the Tornado Watch map.

Here's what the storms prediction center is showing in our chances for severe thunderstorms..

That moderate risk is no joke! Things could get rough later today as this next map is the tornado outlook probability:

That is a hatched area of 15% chance of tornadoes in our area. That's good chance and I'm not saying a tornado will happen but I am telling you that a 15% risk is a very good chance for a tornado around here!

I will be with you all day long via Facebook and Twitter will rapid updates on the weather situation so make sure you stay tuned to the weather all day long and be aware of whats going on outside your door. Have a great day everyone and please be safe!

Thunderstorms Ahead!

Hello everyone and good Tuesday to you! We have temperatures in the upper 50s right now and they are yet again expected to hit the 60 degree mark and a bit further especally in the south. We have a storm system to watch as Western parts of the state are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for later in the afternoon and evening hours.

The slight risk threat slides further to the east to include our area for the day tomorrow but the main thing I'm worried about right now is a squall line of thunderstorms developing out west and moving into our area during the overnight hours. Here's a look at the current Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlooks:

You can see the slight risk in western Kentucky. What about here? Well you can't completely rule out the chance of storms here so the SPC has us in just general thunderstorms being possible but nothing severe.
Here's a look at early mornings and tomorrows outlook:

Tomorrow looks to be the heart of the Bluegrass state in the middle of the strong to severe thunderstorms, here's the probabilistic outlook for tomorrow:

Thats us in the 30% range. We'll have to keep a very close eye on that area as it will be the best area for seeing strong to severe thunderstorms. With these storms Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and Tornadoes are all a very possible threat. We'll have to wait and see how this all plays out as we move closer.

More updates via Facebook and Twitter later on today as the storms move closer! Have a great Tuesday everyone and take care! :)

Warm It Up Again!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on your Sunday morning. After temperatures started nice Friday and ended with snow flurries then Saturday's very cold all around day we finally get something to work out in our favor for once ;).

Today will be nothing like the last two days. Temperatures will rise into the low 50s around here with nice and mainly sunny skies. Temperatrures will do nothing but incease for the next few days with highs reaching 60 degrees by Monday, but the southwest winds will be a bit on the gusty side as well. Tuesday will be well into the 60s as another nasty storm gets set to affect us moving in to the western parts of the state Tuesday evening. By Wednesday morning it will affect the whole state and this looks to be another severe weather maker. It could put out some strong to severe thunderstorms.

The GFS model really likes the possibility of those severe thunderstorms. Thats not the only thing to watch for as the week goes on as we are and will be watching another system that looks to move in for the weekend and it may have a shot at bringing some winter weather back to our area of the state. I'd rather it be spring already but there's nothing we can do about it. My money is on this system not being the last to bring winter weather to our area ;).

Have a great day and take care everyone! :)

Stormy Thursday Turns Into Cool Friday

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! Last night we had some strong and severe thunderstorms come rolling into our area. some areas saw storms and some areas did not. It does see as if alot of us we're on the lucky side that none of these became a big threat to us.

Anyways today will be very quiet, lower hanging clouds will be around with us for most of the day with a few peaks of sunshine. Temperatures for some areas are currently in the low to mid 50s and they look to slowly come down through out the day and we should see some snowflakes for tonight.

Tomorrow will be a cool day with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s and most locations will not get out of the 30s. Sunday looks to be a better day with high temperatures rising into the low 50s. Monday and Tuesday looks to be great days with high temperatures in the upper 50s maybe pushing 60 degrees.

We're watching another storm that looks to come rolling through on Wednesday into Thursday and it looks to be another severe weather maker with a nice shot of cold air to follow behing the front. Right now we are in a weather pattern that looks to bring several storms in our way and this looks to continue into the month of March. Will any of these bring us snow? That is yet to be known but we sure do have the threat for severe weather.

Have a great day everyone and take care! :)

Thunderstorms On The Way

Hello everyone and good Thursday to you! Many of you are out enjoying this very warm day and I don't blame you! This weather dude went for a nice walk in the park today and it sure was a great one ;).

Anyways most of you are looking at the radar at the bottom of the page saying "Where's the storms?!?" Well they're not there (Duh!) They have yet to fire up and just because you don't see any storms on the radar doesn't mean we are our of the woods yet! We are far from it! Once these storms fire up they have plenty of unstable air to work with as they move to the east.

Temperatures down near the Kentucky/Tennessee border has now hit the big 70 degrees mark and that makes for even more instability in the air. By this time you all are probably wondering "How does the air become unstable?" Well when theres alot of sun out and it warms the air it creates instability and provides the ripe air mass needed for severe thunderstorms to develop.

Now with that being said, I do expect thunderstorms to fire up VERY SOON! Some of these will not only be strong but SEVERE as well. The storms that are not part of a squall line have a real chance of producing a TORNADO! So always be aware of the weather no matter where your at in the state. Have a great afternoon/evening with more updates via facebook and twitter and take care! :)

Stormy Thursday

Good Thursday morning everyone! I have a post for you that I'm sure you'll like and with an urgent message for what to watch out for later today. Let's get to the headlines shall we?

Today, temperatures will spike well up into the upper 60s and some low 70s out there as the winds will really crank up from the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Now as you may know by now that any time temperatres gets this warm for this time of the year they are usally accompanied by strong and severe thunderstorms which we will see later today.

Here's a look at some Storm Prediction Center (SPC) products:

Thats the general risk. Damaging winds, large hail are the main threats. Any storms that gets out and roams on it's own needs to be watched as they will have the highest risk at producing tornadoes.

Here's the Torndao threat:

That hatches area of 5% and 10% is a pretty good shot for this time of year. I do believe some tornado warnings are very possible later today as thunderstorms start to fire up.

Here is the damaging winds threat:

Thats a good risk across the Bluegrass state for today.

Last but not least the hail threat:

The severe thunderstorm threat is a real thing for today. I'll have more updates later and quick updates via facebook and via twitter as the storms start to roll in! Have a great day and take care! :)

Where's Winter?

Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of Where's Winter? Today we have very warm temperatures that will surge well into the upper 50s and low 60s in the south. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has put our area in a slight risk for seeing severe thunderstorms for today. Thunderstorms will fire up in the afternoon hours and here's a look at that convective outlook:

Thats a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for southern and southeastern Kentucky. Especally in the London and Somerset areas.

The best chance of thunderstorms will come tomorrow as the unstable air will be best. The lifted index is showing -2 around here and thats a good bit of instability in the air and it looks to create some starong to severe thunderstorms. High temperatures for tomorrow is going to run in the upper 60s and even a few 70s out there! That should certainly help in the creating of thunderstorms.

Enjoy these warm temperatures as they will not last past Thursday! Friday a strong front will move in and cause temperatures to fall into the mid 30s by the afternoon hours! How about this Kentucky weather? Severe Thunderstorms one day to cold and a shot at some snow all within a 24 hour period.

More updates late today and quick updates via facebook. Have a great day and take care! :)

Warm Up On The Way!

Hello everyone and good Tuesday to you! The snows from the weekend is melting off and the warm up begins! Today temperatures should reach the low 50s for many and mid 50s for tomorrow and even low 60s for Thursday!!

I wanted to start by saying the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put our area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Here's Thursday's Convective outlooks:

That's a slight risk for here!
Now check out the Convective Outlooks for Friday!

Both have slight risks here and that will be along and ahead of a strong cold front that is looking to bring out warm temperatures down into the drain for the day on Saturday!

More updates as needed so take care and have a great Tuesday! :)

White Monday

Hello everyone and good afternoon to you! Many areas got in on some accumulating snows and I've seen some pictures that were sent in to me and they were all great! The highest snowfall total that I know of was in Black Mountain at 11 inches recorded.

Today will feature alot of snow melting with sunny skies and high temperatures near 40. Tonight low temperatures will be near 32 degrees.

Tuesday a weak cold front moves into our area and it will bring some rain showers with it and it won't really have much cold air behind it at all. Highs will reach the upper 40s and maybe a few 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the 50s with low 60s being very possible by Thursday and this will be ahead of a strong dip in the jet stream bringing a very potent cold front with plenty of rain along and ahead of the front with a switch to some snow behind it. No accumulation expected.

More updates as needed! Have a awesome Monday and take care! :)

Let it Snow!

Hello everyone and good afternoon to you on this snowy Sunday! The snow started to fall later than expected and for that reason snowfall totals will be cut back. I know it made me a bit disapointed by not getting as much as first expected but hey, I'm just a weather forecaster and predictions change and mine have really changed as of late.

I do think a general 2-4 inches can be expected around here with local amounts higher than 4 inches. The reason why we haven't been snow this morning was the pure fact that it was too warm. Now that is is snowing I say enjoy it while it lasts because m=Monday temperatures will near 50 degrees so it will all melt tomorrow.

Now let's talk a little what if here. What if the snow started falling around 8am this morning? Well IF that happened we would be talking about 4-8 inches of snow around here and that is what I expected to happen in the way of when it was to start.

There os still plenty of moisture to work with and it should stil snow for a few more hours at the least leading to snowfall totals of 2-4 inches. it's going to be a tough call for schools tomorrow depending on how late the snow hangs around. Some models indicate the snow hanging around untill late around the 7pm hours.

Travel is going to be rough as long as it's snowing. I will have quick updates through out the day on my facebook so be carefull and have a great day! :)

Major Snow Storm On The Way

Good afternoon everyone and what a nice start to the weekend we have but remember this will not last long so enjoy it while you can as we have a MAJOR SNOW STORM on the way and is set to hit us hard late tonight into tomorrow.

Here's a briefing on what to expect and a little run through on how and if anythings has changed.

- Today, unseasonal high temperatures in the upper 50s and maybe a 60 out there is possible as well, we'll stay dry for most of the day today as the system moves in late. Rain showers will be the start to this eventual snow event.

- Rain changes over to snow over night tonight that is the early morning hours and the pre dawn hours as well. Snow should start to fall before sun up and the hardest snows looks to hit in the morning.

- Not much has changed in my snowfall forecast map, so therefore I am not going to make a new one just yet. A new map is very likely later tonight as more is known about where this system will track and how much more or less moisture will be available.

- Effects from the snow: Tree branches being down and small trees downed as well, power outages is a very real threat as well as 5" of this wet, heavy snow on any power lines or tree limbs will bring them down. Now alot of you have already been asking me this or just flat out wondering about this. Will there be school around here? Well honestly I normally do not answer this untill I know all the facts, weather conditions, road conditions ect.. but I will say this, it is very likely school systems will cancel classes for the day Monday and if not Tuesday. I say this because we're talking about possibly a foot of snow and that won't melt too easily ;)

Anyways more updates will be up later today and I hope to be able to fit in at least 2 more full updates later today and of course quick updates will be going up all day long on my facebook and I will most likely be blowning up your news feed with updates eventually ;) Have a great Saturday and take care! :)

WINTER STORM WATCH

Hello everyone and good Friday to ya! Wow we have got some crazy weather coming for Saturday night into Sunday and I'm about to break it down for you all just in a minute. Let's start with the current watches and warnings map:

As you can see that says WINTER STORM WATCH. This just isn't a winter weather advisory, this is much for iminant and more serious. We're talking about enough snow to knock out power and bring tree limbs down.

I'm not going to waste any time putting the map up so you all can see just how much snow we're talking about here. Now I must point out that the track of the low pressure system is everything. If it moves 50 miles south snow totals will go down, and if the system moves 50 more miles to the north snow totals will rise higher than what is on this map:

Thats 8-14 inches is far eastern Kentucky and 6-12 inches in areas as far west as London and Somerset. 3-6 around the Lexington area and 1-3 a bit to the west. A sharp cutoff is expected and like I said the track of the low will mean everything to how much we will see total wise.

I'll have more updates as we move along and like always quick updates via facebook! This is a serious threat to our weather and please play it smart and always know what the weather is like in a situation like this. Have a great evening and take care! :)

Winter Storm?

Hello everyone and good evening to you! As in my last post I mentioned that a winter storm is possible for this weekend and and I also promised one more full update and here it is.

Here's how things look to go down over the days leading to the weekend storm. Tomorrow for your Friday temperatures will start out well above average. The average morning temperatures is somewhere around 28 degrees and the average high for this time of year is somewhere near 46 degrees, temperatures tomorrow morning will be in the mid 40s and in the mid 50s for the highs with partly cloudy skies.

Saturday will start off calm as the storm gets set to move in later on in the day. We do start out dry but by the early evening hours we get in on a little bit of rain to start and the cold air will quickly move in during the late evening hours and also we will see a quick change over to a very wet, and heavy snow. This is the type of snow that makes tree branches and electric lines very heavy and can knock out power.

Now the newest runs on the models show this storm moving further north than first expected and if that is the case we will see an increase in snowfall totals and yes, the system is expected to move further north but how far? That is yet to be known, we still have 3 days untill it hits so we'll know soon enough. Anyways I have preped a map for you all on how big the risks will be around here:

There's a high risk, moderate risk, and a low risk:

Thats some good chances for accumulations of snow :). If the system moves a bit further north you could probably raise those lines about half a county north and half a county west.

More updates as we near Saturday's big system. Have a great night and take care! :)

Thursday Soaker, Weekend Snows?

Good Thursday morning everyone and thanks for stopping by the blog on this rainy Thursday. Things look to change in the world of weather and I hate to say this so early when we are yet to be sure whats going to happen but I think it needs said... We'll get to that in a bit ;)

Today rain showers will be hanging around for much of the afternoon especally in the central and eastern part of the state, a peak or two of sun is possible as we hit the evening hours as the rain moves out. Temperatures should top out in the low 50s despite the rain and clouds.

Friday is like the calm before the weekend storm, it looks to be a nice day with high temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s under mostly sunny skies. DON'T be fooled! This nice weather for Friday will not stick around as we have the threat for a WINTER STORM coming in time for Saturday night and thats when things will turn wintry in a hurry.

This system will come out of the gulf of Mexico and have plenty of moisture and lift up our way with cold air in place. Look at the GFS model for more :

That means snow looks to be falling by Saturday night, a quick change over from rain to a wet heavy snow.

Look how heavy that precip is as the system moves out of the Gulf Of Mexico into the Carolinas and on to the northeast.

This is something to seriously keep watch on, as this could lead to significant snowfall totals possibly being more than 3 inches for our area. More updates via Facebook and I hope to have another full update later today. Have a great day and take care :)

Happy Valentines Day

Hello everyone and good afternoon and Happy Valentines Day to you as well! This is not the best day weather wise for a great day to spend with your loved one(s). First we started with some snow, mix, and then eventually it turned into rain. The good news is temperatures looks to rebound for tomorrow into the low 50s for highs.

Let's get to it folks, today the rain will continue to fall through out your afternoon into the early evening hours as temperatures hold in check in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow, clouds will be on the rise later in the day as another low pressure system moves back into the area and gets set for your Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low 50s.

Behind that next system thats set to move in here will be some cold artic air, and some models are trying to show a system going up in the southeastern states just off the coast in the Gulf Of Mexico and eventually move on shore and move towards the east northeast. Now IF this system does develop and IF it does bring us some precip what will the form be in? As of now IF it does happen it may be in the form of snow, but we are too far out to know for sure as we do not even know if this storm will even develop.

More updates later! Have a great Valentines Day and be safe and take care! :)

Early Morning Snow Worries

Good evening everyone and I hope you are having a great Monday, I have a little update on the weather situation for tonight into the early morning hours of your Tuesday.

Temperatures is a key for what type of precip falls from the sky. It may start out as a brief rain to mix then eventually change to all snow at some point, then right at the time for the morning commute between 5am and 8am looks to be the worst of it and it could bring a little bit of everything as temperatures try to rise near freezing. Snow, rain, sleet, ice is all possible from this.

Very little if any snow accumulation is expected. Up to an inch for around this area. The only problem is it looks to be the worst around the morning commute like I said above.

Any school closings or delays possible? Yes, they are possible but the best chance for that is the further north you live. Chances are slim down here but hey, I've seen even bigger miracles happen before ;)

More updates later via facebook! Have a great evening and take care! :)

Cold Weekend, Snowy Monday?

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this very cold and early Sunday morning. Sorry about the lack of a blog post yesterday I had alot going on, but hopefully this post will make it up to all of you winter weather lovers out there as I bring good news!

First off let's get to the current headlines and the short term stuff. Tonight temperatures will drop off in between 10 and 15 degrees with a very cold northwestern wind blowing with gusts up to and even more than 25mph at times. That will create a wind chill of around 0 degrees. Could we see some locations with wind chills going below 0 degrees? Yes, that is very possible overnight.

Sunday temperatures will rebound a bit, but will still be well below average yet we'll have plenty of sun. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Monday is what I was talking about for the good news for snow lovers. Monday night into early Tuesday morning another storm system will move in here and bring more snow to the area. I'm going out on a limb to say we could expect similar accumulations as we saw last night. Around 1-3 inches is a good bet... Again.

Temperatures looks to stay cold through the first half of next week at least. Towards the end of next week is when we could see yet another snow maker moving in here. This is shaping up for a nice pattern for the cold and snow lovers. Winter is not done yet!

More updates tomorrow, have a great night and take care! :)

Winter Weather Adviory Update

Hello everyone and good Friday afternoon to you! Welcome back to the blog as I've got a update for you!

Here's my new and updated snowfall map:

Here is how it all will play out, snow will increase in coverage from southwest to northeast as the day goes on and just ahead of the precip temperatures will fall at to below freezing making this a almost totally snow event. Snow will pick up in intensity in the evening and over night hours as is likely to be coming down very heavily at times. Roads are very likely to be slick also. Temperatures will fall well into the low 20s and upper teens over night and high temperatures will only reach the mid and upper 20s with snow showers and flurries hanging around especally the further east you live.

Blowing snow is a real good threat especally for tomorrow morning as the northwesterly winds will pick up and cause some intense snow squalls in which if your area just so happens to get in on a good snow squall you could see a very quick half inch to even an additional inch of snow come down in a very short time frame.

More updates later and quick updates via facebook! If you don't follow me on there now is the time to do so! I do make alot of very Important updates on there so make sure to watch for them. Have a great afternoon and take care! :)

Winter Weather Advisory

Good Thursday evening everyone and welcome back to the blog! I've been warning of this for a few days now and it looks like it may happen. Winter is back and it looks to really show itself tomorrow evening and overnight.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE FROM 6PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING UNTILL NOON EST 12PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON:

Here's a look at the NAM projected snowfall totals:

Thats 1-2 inches here and 2-3 inches just to the north of us.
Here is a look at what the GFS model thinks:

The GFS is talking about 1-2 inches of snow around here with 2-3 just north and an area of up to 4 inches in far northeastern Kentucky.

Here's my first call for snowfall map:

The 2-4 inch range is for the mountain areas and a good swath of one to rwo inches can be expected for much of south central/eastern, central, and northern parts of Kentucky. A good light coating can be expected for western Kentucky.

Tomorrow high temperatures will get up to around 40, then as they start to cool off thats when the snow will start flying and Saturday looks to be very cold with high temperatures ONLY hitting into the upper 20s for highs and low temperatures Saturday night will be right around 12 degrees.

More updates through out the day tomorrow and quick updates on my facebook! If you don't follow them on facebook now is the time to do so! have a great night and take care! :)