Winter Weather Forecast!

Good Sunday everyone and welcome back to the blog for the final part of the Winter Weather Forecast! In this post I will go over several things in which this may end up being a lengthy post but all of you whom read it will be more up to date on what looks to be a memorable winter indeed. Let's get to the good stuff shall we? ;)

Anyways this winter is different this than ones we've had in the past few years. Remember me talking about El Nino and La Nina? This applies to every winter, Too high or low of an El Nino or La Nina means out winter will be almost non-existent. For a good winter, we need an slight El Nino. Does that look to happen this year? No. We look to stay in a Neutral Phase. A neutral phase isn't too bad. It just means that we can't look too far ahead and we have to play it one storm at a time. Meaning one storm it can be too warm and the next could be brutally cold. Here's a look at the El Nino forecast. Keep in mind that anything above a 0.5 is El Nino criteria. Anything lower than -0.5 is La Nina Criteria. In the middle? You guessed it, Neutral Phase. Take a look:

As you can tell, we're in a Neutral Phase and we look to stay that way into Jan and Feb. of 2014. Like I stated above, we will have to play things storm by storm and try not to get too caught up in what the long term shows as it's probably going to change anyways.

 

Next I want to show you this recent Analog model. Analogs sums up how this year is going compared to years past up to this date and how the other years turned out. This is a difficult form of forecasting and takes a while to master, but usually produces good results. Now, before I go in depth I want you to look at the map below and keep in mind what really stands out to you on this map.

Not sure what stands out to you, but for me its the big red circles surrounding the + sign just off the coast of Alaska. That my friends is called a blocking high pressure. This blocking is so massive that it will force plenty of brutal cold air into the middle and eastern parts of the country this winter. Due to the pure strength of this blocking high, I would not be surprised if we see temperatures drop below 0 degrees a few tomes this winter.

 

Now we're on the topic of the temperatures it makes for a good time to reveal my home-made version of average temperature maps for the winter ahead:

 

 Overall, I believe we come out just below average temperature wise for the winter ahead. About a degree below average for much of central and eastern Kentucky while slightly colder for the western half of the state. Now with this being said, I do see some warmer spells and some cold spells ahead. Remember this is an average of all the temperatures together.

 

Now onto the snowfall forecast map. This is the one everyone asks about and I just want to say this before you see the map, The average for snowfall here in London is just above 10 inches for the entire winter. This map shows the whole winters totals combined and does factor in the snows we've already gotten. Take a look:

 

This is one of the bold statements I have made for this winter. This is quite a bit above average snowfall for the area. I'm going for broke of this map as I haven't left much room for error. Confident much? :p. Anyways this will lead up to the bit of my post which is a big one for those who have actually read this far and not just looked at the maps!

BOLD PREDICTIONS: 1. I predict that we see more than one day of subzero temperatures (-0 degrees or colder) this winter. Blocking high pressure ushers in brutally cold artic air into the area.

2. I believe we see at the least, one snowfall of 6 inches or greater this winter. The type of setup with the massive blocking high pressure will also bring in the chances of bigger snows this winter.

With all of this being said, I certainly think this winter has the chance to be a memorable one. I cannot tell you it will happen but there's always a chance.

Thank all of you for reading! If you would like to leave your thoughts in a post on my facebook page feel free to do so with some feedback. I need as much feedback as possible as it helps me better focus on what I need to work at to get better to help you! Have a great evening everyone and take care!

Snowy Thanksgiving

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! We just passed a busy Sunday weather wise (well for me anyways) and I have to say our area got lucky. All the rain and clouds that stuck around during the day protected our area from having the second major tornado outbreak in roughly a year and a half. 55 tornadoes have been confirmed so far with 13 more to be investigated. If I'm not mistaken, that sets a record for the most active tornado outbreak by far in the month of November. Nonetheless, the folks affected are in my thoughts.

Anyways, what's down the road for us? No severe weather I can tell you that. I'm tracking a system that I've been seeing on the long range models for a while. Now that we're about a week away from this system actually taking shape we can get a sense of where this thing looks to go and so far, it's one of those systems that looks to come out of Texas and ride the east coast. GFS medium range has this system forming and moving out of Texas, keeping it in the deep south in southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and south Alabama. While in the deep south it will suck moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico (in which looks to be abundant at this point) and turn up the east coast. Depending on the location where this storm starts to turn northeast and eventually north will determine what precipitation type we get. In the next day, I should be able to get a hint of what type of precipitation we get on the GFS model. No matter, don't take just one forecast to heart. If this goes the way I'm thinking, instead of it being a 'White Christmas' we could be looking at a 'White Thanksgiving' ;)

Keep an eye out on my new page Clayton Banks SEKYWeather on facebook for more updates in the coming days with a possible blog post coming tomorrow with the new model information that comes in. Have a great evening everyone and take care! :)

First Snowfall of The Very Young Season

Hello everyone and welcome back to the first blog post of the very young winter... I mean Fall season. Yes, this upcoming expected snows on Tuesday morning is anything but normal. Nothing is normal around here when we're taking about accumulating snows in mid November. This is a sign of more things to come as we look to start a pattern that looks to bring a few more bouts of cold and winter weather before Thanksgiving.

First let's focus on the short term. Today on your Monday we're looking good! You would never know it was going to snow by how today is going to play out. Nice conditions with highs in the low 60's. Enjoy it as we'll start dry and the next few days after that temperatures will be stuck in the upper 30's and low 40's for highs. Like I said above, this isn't normal for mid November.

The artic front will move through early Tuesday morning and will likely have a few rain showers just ahead of it. Behind the front temperatures will crash 15 degrees in a few hours time and light snow will begin to fly across the area! Snow lovers I have finally been able to order up a forecast that favors your side! The only downside is that what falls at first will not stick due to extremely warm ground temperatures. Now if we get in on some heavier bands you can briefly see this sticking to surfaces like car tops, roofs, and grassy areas. It looks to snow for a few hours and will be a sight to see. Speaking of accumulations, here's my first call for snowfall!

Southern Kentucky I regret to say this but we won't get as good of a shot because it will be later on when the front arrives to cool things down enough for snow but we'll see a lot of flakes and a shot for a light dusting on grassy surfaces. With that being said the one inch line does come close to the county line and that will be something to watch. Keep an eye out for an updated snowfall map after 5pm tomorrow when 18Z model runs come out.

Now a look at the long term, this weekend looks to get interesting. We have a system that looks to eject out of Texas and produce high winds, lots of rain, and strong thunderstorms but on the back side it looks to produce more snow for the area if the models continue to hold up. Oh wait, it doesn't stop there. Plenty of blocking is showing up down the road in which may mean several more shots of cold and snow up through early December. Not to mention another shot or two of cold and snow before Thanksgiving! Interesting pattern showing up ahead. For rapid updates visit my new page Clayton Banks SEKYWeather on Facebook. Have a great night everyone and take care! :)

More Snow Talks!

Hello everyone and welcome back. Today we're currently seeing some light drizzle to sleet pellets to snowflakes in which would be the first snowflakes of an extremely young season ahead of us. These will die down tonight but return tomorrow afternoon as tonight we have a FREEZE WARNING in effect until 10am in the morning and a FREEZE WATCH which will likely be upgraded to a FREEZE WARNING for Friday night into Saturday morning. Speaking of snow, I want to get you all pumped for the winter season by going over some common tracks for snowstorms and other snow producers for around here. Let's get to it!

In the picture below you'll see a few tracks with different colors. As you can tell this was all done from scratch with the ol' handy dandy Paint accessory on my laptop. Hey don't judge okay? ;p anyways, here's the map and take a look for yourself. I'll break everything down for you below the picture:

 

Okay as you can see I have four different colors so that's four different tracks to cover.

 

Track #1 Black: The lines you see in black coming out of Canada is one of the most common paths you see producing snow during the winter months and sometimes as early as the Fall months. This path is commonly known as an 'Alberta Clipper'. Meaning that this is a clipper system further meaning it moves quick and lacks a lot of moisture, Alberta means that's where it comes from, Alberta Canada. Typically when a clipper system move into our area out of Alberta it means very cold air is also on the way. With an 'Alberta Clipper' around here you'll be lucky to pick up more than 3-4 inches of snow out of it.

 

Track #2 Yellow: Anything north of the yellow line are areas that commonly see and experience the next system like way to see snow. This one is called 'Lake Effect Snows' The Great Lakes produce this 'Lake Effect Snow' when cold air moves over the warmer lakes and produces snow. This snow can dump upwards of a foot for areas nearby the lakes. What about this far down into Kentucky? Sometimes we can see a couple of inches probably 4 at the max and that's on a very good day.

 

Track #3 Blue: This track is also very common during winter. It brings low pressure systems out of Texas and scooting them eastward to Georgia before turning northeast through South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. This normally starts off as rain and changes over to snow. Sometimes the change over is so rapid that you don't even see any mixed precipitation. In this scenario, everything to the north and west of the low is usually all snow. If your just to the north of the low but very close to where the low is setting up you'll probably see a cold rain until the system moves off to your east and northeast and allows cold air to wrap around the backside and change rain over to snow. This track typically puts down anywhere up to 4 inches with local spots picking up a touch more on a good day. If a system tracks about 100 miles further to the south of the blue line, you can go from 2-4 inches to 6"+.

 

Track #4 Red: This one is the big one, the 'Big Mamma'. When storms form just off the coast into the Gulf of Mexico like this one it allows abundant moisture to gather and move onshore. If cold air is present in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as this storm moves into Georgia and starts to move northeast snow can be seen falling as south as Atlanta, Georgia. Well it happened in the 'Superstorm of 1993' anyways. As this storm moves north, (in which the best track may be further north since I done the map myself) with the (hopefully) cold air that is present all snow would fall in the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valley areas (southern and south central Kentucky). Record snows could fall like back in 1978 and 1993 where upwards of 20 inches of snow fell (22 inches with localized high amounts in 1993 in London to be exact). That kind of snowfall would shutdown entire towns for days and knock out power to millions of people. It would be a snowstorm of historic proportions like 1993 and 1978 was. Making Track #4 Red, the best path for snowstorms in southern Kentucky.

 

Hope you all enjoyed this post and I also hope your ready for the winter season ahead. As a weather guy, my gut tells me and gives me bad feelings about the winter that's upcoming. Like always I'll post more information and updates as it becomes available on my new facebook page Clayton Banks SEKYWeather. Have a great evening everyone and take care!

Snowflakes Before Halloween?

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this Sunday cold Sunday evening. I hope all of you are staying warm as it is only going to get even colder in the coming days as a few more shots of colder air moves in which each shot continues to be colder than the previous one.

Our next shot of cold air will come Tuesday night as a potent cold front moves through from the northwest. Any cold front that comes from this direction will cool things down no matter what season it is. Basically in winter, it will take conditions from cold to even colder. Anyways, Wednesday will only feature high temperatures in the mid and upper 40's. Temperatures will struggle to even get this high. On Wednesday and piece of energy will rapidly move in from the northwest, it's a sort of a clipper system to speak. We normally see these a lot in the winter months and normally these puts down a few inches of snow, that is, in the winter months.

On Wednesday night we'll start to see this fast moving piece of energy push on out of here. Rain will change to snow flurries on the backside of this, only thing that is uncertain is how long will the flurries last? My question is can this be photogenic at some times Wednesday night? Good enough to have proof and say 'hey, first snowflakes of the season' hopefully. I want to show you all the latest NAM model. Now remember, the GFS has been calling for snow showers here lately, the NAM says just flurries. Funny thing about this is that the GFS shows no accumulation, yet the NAM does. Take a look:

Yeah I know this isn't for our area but this is rather close for this time of the year.

Seeing the chance for accumulating snows this close to home, this early before Halloween is normally a good sign for you cold and snow lovers. No matter, this weather guy has a bad feeling about the winter ahead. If you've been following my updates regularly on my new page Clayton Banks SEKYWeather you'll know that so far this year is adding up to the years 1978 and 1993 which both produced snow storms to significant proportions. These dates continue to be the top trends on the analog models.

Either way  you look at it I fully believe we'll see the first snowflakes of the season Wednesday night. It isn't very often that we see snowflakes before Halloween on any given year so that could be a red flag at we roll on through the Fall season and push ever so much closer to Winter. I should have a final word in the next few weeks to announce when I will have the last half of my winter weather forecast read. Keep an eye on for that.

Have a great night everyone and take care! :)

Winter Weather Forecast Part 1!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! Yes it's that time of year with summer winding down and we start to head full steam into fall. All of you know what's next, we tend to skip the fall season and start talking about winter! Well in this post it's about the winter ahead, sorry fall! ;) Anyways for those who are looking at this winter forecast for the first time ever since following me, I always try to go in depth and break everything down for all of you that don't understand the weather lingo as well. I do want to remind everyone that Some of these models are new for this years post. This is probably very new to most of you so if you have any questions leave a comment with your name and question and I'll get with you as soon as possible! Let's get to it shall we?

First off I want all of you to look at what the Nino models are talking about for the winter ahead:

Okay in the image above it shows if we'll be in a El Nino phase, La Nina phase, or a Neutral phase. Anything below -0.5 is La Nina, above 0.5 is El Nino, and anything between -0.5 and 0.5 is a Neutral phase. If you love the snow and cold you want to be in a weak El Nino. Basically just barely above 0.5 on the graph. Notice how starting in January into February we become in the weak El Nino? That suggests an active last half of the winter season. Snow, rain, or both? Not sure yet but I can say in the graph above its very supportive of snow coming our way in the last half of winter.

This next image is from the CFS model and it's a seasonal model which throws a number out there on temperatures for a three month period. The seasonal models normally have a decent handle on temperatures but not on precipitation. The one I'm showing you below is of temperatures only and for the months of Jan-Feb-March. Take a look:

Notice the blue color over much of the area? That's suggesting temperatures for those three months to be below normal for that time of year. Jan and Feb are normally our coldest and most active months of winter and this seasonal model says hey, once again you can expect more of the same. Here's a look at what the same model says for the month of Jan in 2014 alone precipitation wise:

This model shows a wetter than average Jan is on tap. Oh remember the other model from above? I hope so because I'll sum it up this way because it's that easy. Colder than average + wetter than average = models suggest plenty of snow for the month of Jan. Will this hold true? That's a good question and we won't know until we get closer. These are only models and just because they trend one thing doesn't mean it will happen so please do not take these to heart. These models can say something totally different tomorrow so be aware, but I do honestly believe that up to this point the chances for plenty of snow this winter are good... For now.

Models also point at an early start to winter as well. Some models point towards 30 degree temperatures for Thanksgiving Day! They also hint at some possible snowflakes on that day as well. Just because it calls for some early flakes doesn't mean we're going to see accumulations. Also keep in mind that with an early start to winter would also mean we'll probably get some warmer than average days in there as well. We're still so far out it's still hard to tell but that's what's on the plate as of now!

One last thing before I end the post, yes it's another picture but this one is a lot harder to read than the others I've posted. This one is a analog model. This form of forecasting is more complicated and a lot harder to master. For example. All weather events this year up to this point gets compared will all other years up to the same day to see if it matches any previous years. This form of forecasting has been a good way of predicting winters ahead and here's one that came out a few days ago:

 Now this analog model is pointing at this winter being much like the winter of 1993. If anyone is old enough to remember what happened in the winter of 1993 you would know that a big blizzard moved through much of Kentucky and surrounding states dumping more than a FOOT of snow in southern and southeastern Kentucky with snow drifts as high as 4 FEET. That winter featured several cold shots and abundant shots for snow. Also other years that this analog model points at have also had really snowy winters.

So to put it all in a nutshell, no the folks at the Farmers Almanac aren't as crazy as you thought. Even your local weather dude is calling for a colder than average and wetter than average winter with plenty of chances for accumulating snows. This is what I expect so far, this may change between this post and the part 2 of the forecast, I want to thank all of you for taking the time to read this post! I do plan on making a part two and this one should feature more maps but more in the way of home-made maps on how much snow is possible. It isn't set in stone yet on the homemade maps but just keep and eye out on the new facebook page at Clayton Banks SEKYWeather and I'll be sure to announce if those maps will be in on part 2 and any new announcements. Comments and questions are all appreciated in which I can answer either on my new page or in the comment section below. I do want to ask that if any of you want to ask me anything on my new page post it on my wall as your question might be the same that somebody was going to ask.

Have a great Monday everyone and take care! :)

Days Becoming Numbered/Fall preview?

Hello everyone and as always a big welcome back to the blog! I have a few things to discuss in this post. First off being my days of forecasting the weather on my Facebook page are numbered. I'm making some changes that some of you all may have already read in my previous post.

I have a new Facebook page under the name Clayton Banks SEKYWeather. All weather updates will go on there starting August 19th! That's roughly 6 days so I need each and everyone of you to help spread the word so everyone knows! On that page I will go more in-depth with the weather especially when I talk about seasons ahead. I will show more seasonal models and my beliefs on those seasons ahead. I'm looking forward to serving all of you better. The reason for the big change is not enough space on my friends list. Spots to add friends were starting to become short so I decided to make the change to this new page before my friends list got maxed out!

Anyways now onto the weather. Today we're going to see once again more showers and thunderstorms move through the area. I do not expect it to be as widespread as yesterday evening but I do expect many locations to pick up on a shower or two. There's still a lot of moisture left in the atmosphere and since we're already above average for this month on rainfall we need to be aware for FLASH FLOODING. We have a tropical air mass in place and that will push out of here tonight.

Overnight tonight we'll see a cold front sagging to the south pushed by Canadian High Pressure. Canadian High Pressures pack cold air and can really bring temperatures way down especially in the summer months and that's what exactly will happen tonight. I expect by the morning hours for some locations to hit NEW RECORD LOWS. These low temperatures are forecast to be in the low 50s to upper 40s. I'm currently forecasting here in London to bottom out at 49 degrees. High temperatures tomorrow look to only hit 69 degrees. Some models forecast 73 degrees for highs at best. This for sure is a nice Fall day! Wait?! It's still Summer. Who knew? ;)

Thursday and Friday look to be much of the same with low temperatures in the upper 50s and high temperatures in the mid 70s. All three of the next days will be dry all thanks to the Canadian high pressure overhead. Slight chances for rain and storms return for the weekend but for now those chances are only at 20-30%.

Have a great Tuesday everyone and take care! :)

The Next Big Change

Hello everyone and once again welcome back to the blog. More changes are here on the way you view and read my weather updates. Before you ask any questions, no I am not doing away with the blog, and secondly I have not developed a new app. My attempts at developing an app have fallen short for the second time as I do not have the time to keep updating it.

First off I want to thank all of you for the opportunity that I have gotten over the last 5 years. I have came a long way and with each passing day I continue to get better at all of this. I appreciate all of you more than what you'll ever know. With this new update I hope to better serve all of you with the chance that the base of people how rely on will continue to grow and that is the main purpose of this new update. Let's get to it shall we?

I have made a Facebook page under the name Clayton Banks SEKYWeather. This page was created in all hopes of expanding the base of people who rely on me for up to date weather updates. Space on my friends list on my personal Facebook page is growing short and quick at that. This is why I have decided to make this new Facebook page. I will continue to use my personal page but all the weather updates will be on my new page. I'm looking forward to better serve all of you. Please share the new page with all of your friends and family. This will never work without all of your help. I will have a link posted on my personal Facebook soon but all weather updates may not be switched over for another week or so. Be sure to share this page as it is easy to find. I'm still adding things onto the page and like always you all will know when it's ready for posts. The page is already up and running so go like it now! Thank you all. I love and appreciate all of you for everything. Have a great day everyone and take care! :)

Looking Back, July 13th 2013

On July 13th, we had strong to some severe thunderstorms move through the area causing several damaging wind reports as well as several large hail reports including a tornado warning that was issued for parts of northern Laurel, Rockcastle, and Jackson Counties. Although no tornado touched down, but straight line wind damage was confirmed. With this post I want to look back and describe some of the events that happened and what indeed could have happened that day.

On the evening of July 13th, thunderstorms popped up and moved mostly due north out of Tennessee into southern and southeastern Kentucky. These storms became strong and severe especially the one that moved into southwestern Laurel County. By time that particular storm reached west central parts of Laurel County, calls started pouring into the NWS in Jackson reporting a "funnel cloud" being spotted over I-75 near exit 38 and moving over St. Joes hospital between the two London exits on I-75. Because of all of these calls, the NWS in Jackson issued a TORNADO WARNING for northern Laurel, Rockcastle, and Jackson Counties although radar did not indicate anything up to tornado parameters.

Several images poured onto social media sites and this is where I learnt of the "odd" cloud formation that everyone though was a funnel cloud. Here's an image of the cloud formation sent into me by Stacy Calhoun of London.

 

This is a great shot of the cloud formation although I do not recommend doing this while driving. I also had several other shots of this from different angles.

 

The cloud structure in the picture above is called a Wall Cloud. A wall cloud is a lower hanging cloud that often spins and can sometimes spin very fast. Notice the clouds leading into the wall cloud coming from the left? That is what we like to call a "Feeder Band". A feeder band is clouds that move into the right side of the wall cloud causing it to spin. In the northern hemisphere, 98% of all tornadoes, but all hurricanes spin counter-clockwise. While nearly all tornadoes, but all hurricanes in the southern hemisphere spin clockwise. Why do they do this? It's the Coriolis Effect of course. Now when the feeder band pushes clouds into the wall cloud like in the picture above it makes the wall cloud spin, and the more clouds that push into it, the tighter the wall cloud becomes and it increases the likelihood of a Funnel Cloud being produced and we all know what comes after a funnel cloud, Tornado!

 

By looking at the structure of this wall cloud and how well defined it was, I do believe it could have produced a tornado eventually, but it didn't. Why you ask? Because storms were Training that day. When storms "train" they follow storms ahead of them over the same area producing a lot of rain and flooding conditions. A storm had already moved over the area before this one rolled into town and on the back side of that first storm it left behind rain-cooled air. The storm with the wall cloud ran into this rain-cooled air and the outflow the first storm left and made the second storm die out to where it lost the wall cloud. Looking back I can seriously say we got lucky a tornado didn't develop on last week.

 

Thanks for reading everyone, have a great night and take care! :)

Too Early For Winter Talks?

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! I do apologize for not making any posts here as of late. I've been kept well busy lately and I will try to get back into full swing mode but no promises though! I WILL be posting very often of course as we head into the fall and into winter like always.

Anyways folks, I wanted to talk about a few seasonal models as they can sometimes be amazingly accurate especially from a long distance out. One in particular, is raising heads in the eyes of many Meteorologists and cannot be ignored. This model is called the CFS, and it's one of the many seasonal models out there. The CFS in years past has been a good indicator of how some seasons have played out. I think I've prolonged this long enough to now tell you that the CFS is calling for a colder than normal winter season here and for much of the country. The CFS is actually saying temperatures will average up to 4 degrees below normal. Take a look at the image below:

 

 

Here's another look for the months of  November, December, and January alone. Looks to be on the below average side for temperatures:

 



The only problem with everything listed above is the CFS doesn't show the precipitation side of things. If I had to guess I would go out on a limb and say out precipitation this winter will probably be right average if not slightly below average. I'm not very impressed with things so far but then again I haven't had a chance to study the long range models here as of late since our weather has been so active lately.

I will sometime sooner or later have the chance to look at the long range models and as soon as I do, all of you will be the first ones to know. Have a great night everyone and take care! :)

The Next Big Announcement/Future of Forecasting

Hello everyone and welcoem back to the blog! I know I've had very few posts on here this year but you've got to understand that when several weather events are going on in such little time, it leaves you only enough room to send out rapid updates!

As you know I've been working on the next "big thing" in my journey as a weatehr forecaster. I have noticed how many of you tell me that your family will have you to look at my page for the weather. Not only am I flattered at this but I want to fix the problem to where my forecasts and updates can be seen out of social media.

What I'm doing now, I have already failed at once and hopefully I won't again. It's a very long process and it may feature a few trial runs to get the hang of it and make sure everything is just right on this. To access this you will only need a smart phone with the android market. If you haven't guessed yet I'm in the process of making an application for smartphones! The app name is "SE KY Weather" and it will be available free of cost! Make sure you tell friends and family as they will then be able to check weather updates on the go! I have no release date set so far as I'm having a rough time getting everything going. If I had to guess I would say it's about 25% ready to go.

I'm also making a few more plans in which it envolves getting a team together but those plans won't be put togther or released for quite a while. ;)

Anyways I wanted to let all of you know about the future of weather forecasting. NOAA/NWS will be getting a huge grant from the Government to upgrade all computer models that we use to forecast the weather. Currently the United States is way behind in forecasting and our computer models (GFS, NAM) are way behind as the European model kicks butt every time. By 2014 the upgrades will take place and the United States will be back ontop in the world of Weather Forecasting! Makes me happy and proud to be going into the weather field!

Have a great Thursday everyone and take care! :)

Summertime Temperatures Ahead

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog. I know it's been quiet this year weather wise and therefore I haven't used the blog all that much. Basically every weatehr event that's happened this year I've been able to describe in detail on social media sites. Although the pattern looks to stay the same.

Anyways let's get to the headlines. Sunday night we had a cold front move through which allowed temperatures to cool way down to almost record low temperatures into the low and mid 30s with widespread frost. Tonight we'll see a smilar set-up with temperatures not dropping as low but low enough to head back into the upper 30s with a few areas of patchy frost. Especally in some of those sheltered valleys.

Temperatures tomorrow will rebound quite nicely into the mid 70s for highs with little to no clouds. Wednesday into Thursday it will really start to feel like summertime for a few days. Clear skies with high temperatures in the mid 80s on Wednesday with a bit of a humidity factored in would make for the first time we have the ol' heat index back. For those that don't know, the Heat Index is a factorization of the temperatures Dew Points and the Humidity all together. What those three does is makes it seem hoter outside so to speak. That why the Heat Index is also known as the "Feel like temperature".

Thursday, we'll see a bit more of the heat index this time it'll create some pop-up showers and thunderstorms. "Pop-up showers and thunderstorms" is caused by the higher humidity and dew point levels making the atmosphere more unstable and ripe for shower and thunderstorm action. These type of storms can develop at the drop of the hat and can move really slow dumping large amounts of rain leading to flooding.

Next week I'm watching another cold front that looks to eventually make it's way through here. It's not going to be nowhere near as strong as the past few we've had, but it will cool temperatures down a bit. How much is not yet to be known but I can say this with confidence: We look to continue into a pattern that will feature numerous days of the week where rain and thundertsorms could be a good possibility. With that being said, we will stay above average on rainfall for the young spring season.

Have a great night everyone and take care! :)

Severe Thunderstorms Tuesday

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! We have a SEVERE WEATHER DAY across much of the state for your Tuesday and I just want to touch on some of the details and what to expect during the day. Let's get to it folks!

Here's a look at the SLIGHT RISK area:

This by any means will not be an significant severe weather outbreak but spotty severe action can happen anywhere in the yellow (slight risk) area.

Thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the heart of Missouri and are slowly drifting to the southeast. Storms should be ongoing in the morning hours and should be just to our north and west at that time. Dewpoints should be on the rise into the mid and upper 60s pushing 70 in some areas. That will make for a muggy late morning and that looks to be about the time the Thunderstorms start to push in and have the potiential to be on the severe side. Right now, main threats look to be LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

The combination of frontal convection, sufficient instability and wind shear could make things interesting as we get into the day tomorrow. Plenty of warm air will be in place with temperatrues in the low 80s will add for more instability. A few discrete thunderstorms may go up ahead of the broken line of thunderstorms and those are the ones that have an increased risk for Large Hail and Tornadoes. Keep in mind we're on the unstable side of the stalled out cold front to the north and west. Right now the storms that are in Missouri have a severe thunderstorm watch out for them but thats mainly for the threat for hail as their on the cool side with temperatures currently in the low to mid 50s there.

I will have rapid-full updates through out the day tomorrow. Be sure to keep up to date through my facebook page. You can find me by searching "Clayton Banks" Have those weather radios on and ready all day tomorrow just in case a watch or warning is issued. More updates to come later. Have a great night everyone and take care!

Spring Is Here, Here To Stay

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! I have several things to go over with y'all tonight and I'm going to break it down as good as I possibily can. Let's get to it folks.

Here in the short term, tomorrow we're going to see a system slide by just to our south and raise back to the north slightly. This will bring a cold rain into the area with the southern counties getting more in the way of rain than the other areas. High temperatures will struggle a bit but I think we'll top out close to 55 although it probably won't feel like it with the cold rain falling.

Friday things are looking much better, the first half of the day we may be dealing with left over and lingering showers and clouds. We clear it out for the rest of the day and our high temperatures will hit right around 63-66 degrees. Saturday we look to be mostly sunny with a few clouds highs pushing 70 degrees. Sunday looks awesome as well with high temperatures nearing 75 degrees in some areas. We may have to watch out of a shower or two on Sunday but I'm thinking it's unlikely.

Nest week sometime we're going to see two air masses colliding in the midwestern states. Cold air to the north, and warm air to the south. This looks to have two low pressure systems working along the main front. These two air masses and the low pressure systems will trigger strong to severe thunderstorms for our area during mid to late week. As of now I am unsure on how strong any thunderstorms will be and thats something I will be trying to zero in on by the weekend. I could be jumping the gun on the severe weather threat in which I hope I am but it's something to know and watch for in the coming days.

I will have more updates when I get more in as new model runs become available. Have a great rest of your Wednesday and rest of the week, and take care! :)

Happy Spring!... Wait, What?

Good late afternoon everyone we're currently in the middle of an early spring winter storm. Hints the title of this post right? ;p Anyways, let's get to the details on this storm. Temperatures will hover around freezing until the sun starts to set then will dip down into the 20s as snow starts to accumulate once again on area roadways. Travel conditions after sundown will be hazardous.

I expect an additional 1-2 inches for most areas after the sun goes down. Areas above 1500 feet could see an additional 2-4 inches. I have been getting alot on questions on my facebook concerning the chances for school tomorrow for several areas. I do think conditions will get very rough tonight into tomorrow as snow showers and flurries will continue through late morning tomorrow. I do expect widespread school cancelations and delays.

On the bright side, Temperatures come up just in time for the weekend. Friday highs hear 52 degrees, saturday high 55, and finally Sunday a high temperature of 58 degrees. Is spring finally here? I'll touch up on that later on but first we got to get this cold and snow out of here.

Have a great evening everyone, be safe and take care! :)

Happy First Day of Spring/ Another Announcement

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! Today as many know is the first day of spring! March 20th 2013. Nobody is more excited to see this on the calendar than this weather dude. ;) If you've seen any of my posts last night in facebook you could tell that I'm very anxious for spring weather.

Last night I also made the post that I'm starting a fundraiser to hire a search and rescue team to find spring! Still, I'm not seeing any sign of spring at all. Noth within the next week or two. Yeah I know, I'm getting pretty tired of being the guy that brings all the bad news. Anyways Let's get to the weeks forecast.

Today, high temperatures will range from the upper 40s to low 50s here in southern Kentucky. Temperatures will continue to range in the upper 40s and low 50s for the rest of the week. Kepp in mind that average high temperatures for this time of year is pushing 60 degrees or more here in southern Kentucky. This weekend we'll have the potential for a big storm to develop and bring alot of rain to the area on Sunday then switch over to a mix then snow with the possibility of a light accumulation.

That system will then bring down another re-enforcing shot of cold air in and yet another snow chance for the middle of next week. Like I said above.. I'm not seeing any sign of spring in the next week or two... :(

Anyways, I have decided to do something different with the way I get the weather information out there. With my name growing and predicting the weather is becoming a bigger demand for folks around here, It's getting alot harder for me to gather local storm reports from around the nearby areas. This is where you come in, If any of you have pictures or any reports of what the weather is doing where you live, please send them to me! I would love to have them. With weather events, especally thunderstorms you're set of eyes are more usefull than radar images as you can see exactly whats happening at the surface as the radars cannot see that. I've never asked for any or your help but I am now. If you can help me with this, we will INCREASE our chances of SAVING LIVES and REDUCING any weather related INJURIES.

Thank all of you for reading, have a great Wednesday everyone and take care! :)

Next System/ A Taste Of Spring

Hello everyone and good evening to you. I hope everyone got the chance to read the last post "Flashback: March 2nd 2012" I worked very hard on that one and I've got some good feedback on it so far. Anyways let's talk about the next storm system thats moving in and our chances of seeing spring in our near future.

The next system is set to impact us Tuesday into Wednesday with it coming form the north and west then it will give way to a developing system that will move through the Carolina states up the east coast. We're likely to start out as a very cold rain then change over to a period of moderate to heavy snows Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Now, this is where things get tricky as some models keep the heaviest of snows just east of here into Virginia yet others such as the folks from the HPC says the best shot for accumulating snows is here in southern, southeastern, and eastern Kentucky. As you can see below:

Thats an 80-95% chance for at least one inch of snow in eastern Kentucky. Now clearly as you can see that locations such as London, Somerset, to Lexington has an 80% chance. Ashland and Morehead I would have to say 90%.

Here's what the GFS shows early Wednesday morning as widespread snow showers take over eastern Kentucky:

As of now I would say accumulations of 1-2 inches is a shot more much of the area but I would say 1 inch or less is more realistic.

Enough snow talk, where's spring?! Well I have good news and bad news. Bad news first. I am seeing spring like temperature sin the near future but it's only a brief taste of spring. The good news is that this taste of spring will come just in time for the weekend (starting March 8th) where temperatures are likely to hit 60 degrees for much of the state with temperatures pushing 65 degrees very likely in the southern areas.

Although I do not see any sign of full fledged spring in the near future. I see Old Man Winter having a grip on us for the next 2-3 weeks at the least. Have a great night everyone and take care! :)

Flashback: March 2nd 2012

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog. This post is only to talk a look back at the historic tornado outbreak of March 2nd 2012. In this post I will share my feelings, actions, and thoughts from that day. Also I will talk about some senarios that did happen and what could have happened.

I want to start with showing you these SPC products. These images play a big role in a storm chasers agenda and where to chase. Why am I telling you this? Because two things. One, storm chasers go after tornadoes. Two, storm chasers never come to Kentucky to chase because all the trees and mountains making it hard to see the sky which plays a HUGE rold when storm chasing. It's very dangerous to chase in Kentucky, but on this day the biggest and most well known chasers were in Kentucky.

The first image is a categorical graphic. There are three categories. Slight, Moderate, and High. Now before you look at the image please note that a HIGH risk is only issued a few times a year. Actually you'd be lucky to see it issued twice in one years time. It's very rare.

Thats a HIGH risk area for over 75% of the state. Here's a look the the chances for tornadoes that day:

Don't look at this image and think, "oh, 30% that isn't too bad." In fact a 30% hatched area is very bad. Thats a high risk for long lived, long track, massive tornadoes. Even the 10-15% area is an elevated risk.

I for one had seen this outbreak coming for days ahead of time. This day was actually a break-through day for me. Knowing that during the day of this severe weather event was ongoing was frustrating for me. I tried to get the word out and people failed to listen, instead people went on making fun of the posts I made and posting pictures of a clear sky saying "look at this tornado". Yes, I wish I was wrong, but sadily I wasn't.

The image below was taken during the day of March 2nd.

This picture was taken by Tiffany Stanfield, you can just see how calm conditions were leading up to the events that took place later on that day. Thank you Tiffany for the picture!

Alot of people will look at conditions outside and see exactly what you see in the picture above and think "well it looks good outside so I don't think anything will happen." DON'T BE FOOLED! When skies looks clear, nice and warm it's actually doing more harm than good. The more sun you see means the more unstable the air is causing the instability levels to go through the roof. That makes an elevated risk for severe weather.

Before these storms moved in I was chasing smaller cells myself. The less severe ones just trying to get some pictures. I had a weather radio on me and I heard a tornado warning being issed. Pannic quickly set in and I took off towards my home as fast as I could. I knew that this point I could be more of a value of getting the word out and any new information rather than getting in the way of any damage and risking my own life.

I then got word of several injuries and deaths as well. This bothered me alot more than words can describe. The fact that not many people took this day very seriously was aggrivating but I can understand why many of you didn't take it too seriously because this is the hills of eastern Kentucky... Tornadoes just doesn't happen over here. Thats the bottom line.

Several things have to come together in order to produce a tornado outbreak of this magnitude. Basically you can say these combinations came together to form nothing short of "prefect conditions" for tornadoes. Yes, one or two of the basic elements can be missing and tornadoes still form but with that being said the tornadoes would be relatively weak and last nothing more than 5 minutes at the most. All of those elements were present on March 2nd, thats what made it to be such a historical day in weather.

As weather events as horrible as this one happens, Meteorologists and Scientists work to better understand thunderstorms and why some produce tornadoes and others do not. They also work to better track tornadoes and predict them as well. With each significant weather event that happens this group of men and women learn more and more and eventually we will be able to predict tornadoes efficently.

Tornadoes can happen anywhere. Hills, cities, bodies of water have no protection from tornadoes. A tornado once tracked up a hill in LA and damaged the famous "Hollywood" sign. Tornadoes have been known to start off a "water spouts" and come onto land causing destruction. Joplin Missouri is one of the latest big cities to be hit by a tornado. In the Joplin tornado, at least 65% of the town was rubble. No body of water, city, or hill is completely safe from a tornado.

I ask of only one thing from all of you as we get closer and closer to the severe weather season of 2013. Please know what to do in weatehr situations, and be more prepared. sadily, sometimes it takes a disaster such as the March 2nd outbreak to realize how prone to certain weather events we really are. It's always good to know where to go and what to do when a tornado strikes.

Thanks for reading and please stay safe this severe weather season. I will keep you up to date through out the year like always. Take care everyone.

On To The Next Storm!

Hello everyone and thanks for stopping by the blog tonight! I have a full update coming for you on the next storm system to impact the area on Thursday. This system looks to bring a little bit of everything to the area. Let's go further in depth shall we?

First off clouds will start to filter in from the west and southwest from this moster system thats currently bringing upwards of a foot of snow to the midwestern states. Late ron in the evening we'll start to see the percipitation start. As of now I fully expect most areas to start off as a brief mix of rain, sleet, and snow. With that being said, some locations may be a touch cooler and may see a patch of all snow but if you do see that it'll only last a few seconds to a half minute at the most.

We'll then start to see a surge of warmer air moving in out of the south and this air will provide a change over from a mix precipitation to all rain. By midnight Thursday I expect most if  not all locations to have already seen the change over to all rain. This rain will last well into the morning hours on Friday, I would say the rain should be all out of the way by noon by the latest. The clouds will linger through the afternoon and evening hours with warmer temperatures still in place. Highs Friday will top out at about 59 degrees.

All this warm air will hang around for the weekend and actually making for one of the nicest weekends we've seen in a while. Saturday morning we'll have a 60% chance of rain but that will be in the earliest of the morning hours by 8am the threat should be all gone. We'll then see the sun come out and warm us up to about 53 degrees.

Sunday actually looks nice to end the weekend with clear and sunny skies. Temperatures won't quite warm up as much as Friday and Saturday but with sunny skies should make up for that. I see high temperatures topping out right around 51 degrees.

Enjoy these warmer temperatures this weekend as change is just looming around the corner as this look to continue to be active in our neck of the woods. I see some systems arriving about every two to thre days and with the potential for some to blow up into bigger storms. I will en on this note, do you remember when I made that post on facebook just yesterday about the potential for a big storm in the Ohio Valley? Well just in case you didn't, models have been showing the chance for a big system developing and moving into our area sometime between the last few days of February and the first few days of March. Yes, this does look like a snow maker but the details won't be ironed out for another week at the least. I wanted to say I still see that pattern showing up on the models.

Will that big system happen? Only time will tell and I'll be watching for it until then. Have a great night everyone and take care! :)

Spring 2013 Outlook!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! I'm currently in the process of trying to get the blog back into full swing mode but time has been limited for me to do so. Anyways I know Winter isn't close to being over yet but it's never too early to start looking ahead to Spring. This post will be all about the spring season that everyone wants to come so badly.

I want to start with that spring may take to a slow start due to a lagging winter season. Winter started off slow and I fully expect spring to do the same yet not as slow as winter did. I do see alot of warmth for spring but not that type of heat and summer time temperatures we were seeing across the area but this warmth will be more widespread and like I just stated, not as hot. Basically we're looking at an average spring.... Temperature wise.

Now on to the precipitation part. I do see plenty of rains for the area and I also see an elevated SEVERE WEATHER RISK towards the latter part (mid to late season) of the severe weather season. Tornadoes is a possibility. I do also have a feeling that this Subtropical Jet stream will be active and be a factor in producing several chacnes for tornado outbreaks arcoss our state. I'm not the only one who thinks the same, the good folks at Accuweather is thinking the same thing. Check out their Spring 20123 highlights map:

Accuweather is actually predicting a good tornado threat for our area for late in the severe thunderstorm season. Here's more evidence that it could be a real threat:

This is from the SPC and this shows how tornadoes so far this year stacks up to previous years. The black line is for 2013. That folks is a very active winter for tornadoes so far. This could be yet another active severe weather season for the state of Kentucky.

Also with severe weather season just around the corner, I strongly suggest you buy a weather radio. This things are cheap, right around 25-30 bucks. If you buy one I can help you set it up. All you have to do is send me a tweet or a message on facebook and I'll be more than happy to set it up for you. These things have saved and do save thousands of lives each and every storm season alone. They're handy! They could help save your life too, especally when power goes out and you are unable to keep up with my updates.

Have a great Monday evening everyone and take care! :)

Back To Winter

Hello everyone and good late Tuesday evening to all of you out there. I'm tracking a tricky storm moving into the area for tomorrow which looks to feature just about everything from rain, snow, and mixed precipitation. This system is going to be tricky because the amount of cold air on the back side is going to unknown until late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours.

Temperatures for tomorrows system will be marginal. What do I mean by marginal? It basically means "iffy" so to speak. Temperatures will bounce around between the mid 30s for much of the day with at any given time snow, rain, or a mix may fall. Roadways and ground temperatures are way warmer than what the air temperatures will be so sorry kids no snow day for you! I do not expect much if any accumulations on the ground due to the warm ground and warmer air that is alreay in place. Although I cannot rule out the few bursts of moderate to heavier snows that may put down a quick accumulation of snow on the ground. Other than that there is no way to beat the warm ground.

Like I've said on my facebook a few days ago, I'm at the point where I'm tired of snow and I've been this way for a few weeks now. I'm ready for warm temperatures and Spring like many of you are. I hate to be the guy who brings bad news but there is not sign of Spring in the next few weeks. I see us in a wintry pattern that looks to last for the reast of the month.

With the above being said, I see our next potential for a WINTER STORM for us Saturday into Sunday. I also see the chance for minor accumulations on Friday before this next system as we get an ARTIC COLD FRONT to move in and this will re-enforce the shot of cold air and make sure this weekend is an ALL SNOW EVENT. The artic air looks to continue into next week as I see yet another winter system coming into the picture right around Tuesday into Wednesday. Yet another active pattern is ongoing here in the Bluegrass State.

Let's take everything just one system at a time. I can't say any details yet on any of the next two systems simply because we're so far out. I can say though that this weekend looks like a widespread shot of accumulating snow for much of the state.

I'll be online as much as possible tomorrow ahead and during this system moving in giving all of you rapid updates. Have a great night averyone and take care! :)

Southern Kentucky Snowfall Woes

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! I would like to tell each and everyone of you reading this that I am sorry for having such a bad handle on today's snow chances. I have had so much going on with college and personal things this week that I haven't had much time for anything lately. The past few nights I've been staying up late several hours so I can give you rapid updates and honestly it's taken a huge toll on me each day only getting a few hours of sleep before class time.

Anyways this post is to tell you why we haven't gotten any snow this winter. If you really want the honest answer then this is for you, but before I tell you I just want to warn you that this may seem like a smart aleck answer but I do not mean it to be in any way. Anyways the answer why we haven't seen any snow is because none the of systems have played out to our advantage or moved in our direction. There I said it. Winter weather is the hardest form of weather to predict little on track. Radars have such a hard time picking up on the difference between rain and snow as snow is smaller than rain and is much harder to pick up on radar. That hints why several times I've told you this winter that the radar may say it isn't snowing when it actually is.

Another thing I wanted to talk to you about is I know alot of you is frustrated and impatient with me as I'm "getting everything wrong" this winter. Well look at it this way, I'm no pro and far from it and another thing I haven't been wrong every time. Just if you knew how much the weather changes. ;)
Anyone can look up the weather off the weather channels website and relay it to you. I don't do that, I post pictures of computer models breaking them down so you can understand them. That puts a fine line between me and other forecasters.

I may not be right every time but I do take time out my busy life to better help you. I am man enough to admit that yes sometimes I am wrong and because of that it fuels me to better my studies and understanding of the weather and how it happens. I will continue to serve all of you in the entire southern Kentucky area and inform you of dangerous weather situations.

I want to end on this, if you think I have a bad handle on the weather right now imagine how bad I was 3 years ago first starting out. Honestly I was wrong at least every 7 out of 10 times. I've made too much progress to slow down now. The only way to go from here is up!

Have a great evening everyone and take care! :)

Thursday Snows!

Good very early morning everyone and welcome to the blog. This is a full update on the next winter weather system to affect our area. This storm looks to move in tomorrow and will probably start off as a mix before the coller air aloft sets in late in the evening hours.

Models still are in a disagreement mode and honestly I have expected them to be like this at least until the late runs come out in the next hour or so. This will fine tune everything on when and where the snows falls and how much. Somewhere during the noon hour I should have a much better understanding on all of that good stuff but until then, bare with me. ;)

Okay folks we'll be seeing a sharp cutoff of snow. Within 10 or 15 miles you can go from snow to no snow at all. This is going to be a tricky one to forecast so I decided to not put a first call for snowfall map up yet, but take a look at my Snow Threat Map on my facebook page as the blog is not letting me post any pictures at this time which is very frustrating -_-

What snow that does fall will be heavy and will pack and accumulate very easily leading to some slick spots in travel so be carefull there. Since the blog is acting up I will continue to have posts through out the day on my facebook tomorrow. I may give another shot at a blog post later on in the day between classes around 1pm. Have a great night and morning everyone and be safe! :)

January Warm Up!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this Monday night. We have a warm up that is already underway. You may not notice much of a difference now but by Thursday I'm positive that you will ;)

This warm up will feature high temperatures into the 60s at some point this week. Here's a look at the 7 day forecast starting tomorrow:
Tuesday, We'll see sunny skies with a high temperature around 56 degrees with a nice south winds of 3-8mph. Wednesday looks good as well with high tempertaures pushing 58 degrees with a slight chance of a shower mainly in the morning hours. Thursday, we have an increase of rain showers at 40% and a high temperature of 61 degrees. Friday we'll have a 20% chance of rain showers and a high temperature of 67 degrees. (some record highs may fall that day) Saturday, we'll have a 30% chance of rain showers with a high of 68 degrees. (record highs may also fall that day as well) Sunday we have a 60% chance of rain with highs near 58. Monday a 20% chance of showers and a high of 46 degrees.

If you notived in the forecast above these warm temperatures WILL NOT last too long at all. actually we'll be going back into a cold and very active storm pattern for the last half of the month into Feb. This is likely to feature a prolonged period of high temperatures struggling to the upper 30s. In addition to that we'll see plenty of storm systems move in here in which may bring our best shot of snows so far this season.

I'll have more updates as needed through out the week. Have a great evening everyone and take care! :)