2023 - 2024 WINTER WEATHER FORECAST!

     Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope all of you are doing wonderful and are enjoying time with cherished family and friends this holiday season. As you know it's that time of year where we start taking about winter weather and snow! How cold does it get? How much snow can we see? We'll get to all of that with this winter weather forecast and I'll show you guys some model runs. We'll also hit on the Strong El Nino for this winter season and it's effects on the area. This is going to be an action packed post. Are you ready?

First off let's start with El Nino, right now we have entered what is being dubbed as a Strong El Nino. Typically El Nino phases bring warmer than normal conditions and drier than normal conditions to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas. This year looks to be no different. Take a look at this image at what a normal El Nino winter would bring: 

This image comes from the National Weather Service.

Notice that southern Jet Stream, this ushers in an amplified storm track where systems start out in the southwest, roll eastward and turn the corner going up the east coast as monster low pressures. Some of the best computer models such as the European model really struggle with these kind of storms that take this track due to a bias of the model that causes it to hold too much energy to the southwest while the GFS model is one that gives too much weight to the northern jet stream which causes this model to keep systems too far southeast when low pressures start to turn the corner and move up the east coast.

Let's keep in mind though that just because El Nino winters are typically drier and warmer than normal it doesn't mean we can't get some decent snows. Recently I dove into the last strong El Nino years we had and how things translated to our weather here in Kentucky. 1997- 1998 and 2015-2016 were the last strong El Nino years we had and both of which produced double digit snowfalls across a large chunk of the state. The placement was interesting too as it was much of central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the state from a bigger system moving up the east coast. Look at the snowfall totals from January 22nd - 23rd 2016:

This was a winter storm that essentially shut down I-75 and stranded over 3,000 motorists. Here's a look at a radar image. This storm was turning the corner and going up the east coast while strengthening. 

Now, back to El Nino. Right now the warmest of waters are closer to the western coast of South America, but are currently moving further west in that "3.4" section whereas right now warmer waters are in "section 1 and 2" To sum it all up once we see the warmest waters in section 3.4, we'll start to see things change pattern wise here. Take a look at where the Nino regions are and where the warmest waters have been trending over the last 4 weeks:

 

Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are moving further west into that 3.4 region that you can see above. I fully expect us to start feeling to real deal effects from El Nino into January - February timeframe. December will serve kind of like a transition month that will still deliver some really cold air blasts any maybe even a sneaky threat.

There isn't a lot of data to go off of when it comes to comparing Strong El Nino's, especially when you remember there has only been 2 of them since 1997. That's over a span of 26 years. When looking at the data we do have, it bodes well for those who are fans of the phrase "I want one be storm and I'll be happy". Now, let's break this darn things down over the next 3 months. 

December: This is a month that I'll label as a transition month. I see a back and forth month where we get some real deal bouts of cold and warm alike. This is a month that will run on the warmer than normal side as a whole and likely drier than normal as well. Despite that, December will feature our first accumulating snowfall. Hopefully, it's that White Christmas everyone wants!

January: We're going to roll with slightly below normal temperatures for the month when averaged out and slightly wetter than normal. This is around when we'll start to see the teleconnections try to advertise some big time systems trying to eject out of the southwest and up the east coast.

February: This has the potential to be our coldest month of the winter season. This is one that can produce a big time winter weather event but also bring a flooding threat as well. Mark this one down for colder than normal and wetter than normal.

Beyond these three months we likely have a pretty hefty fight between winter and spring. March is likely pretty wet too and El Nino tries to return to a neutral phase.

You guys know me and I'm no stranger to making bold predictions and if your a regular listener of my podcast you'll know I keep talking about El Nino and how a "drier and warmer than normal winter doesn't mean no snow or less of it." I actually think we have equal chances of seeing a slightly warmer than normal winter as we do slightly cooler than normal winter. All it takes is one big event, or lack thereof to make or break a seasonal forecast such as this one.

My bold prediction of the winter season is.... Actually there 3 of em'.

1. We see AT LEAST 1 double digit snowfall this winter

2. Somewhere across the region we see a significant Ice Storm

3. The state sees a significant flooding threat in February/March  

Here's the thing, history has shown us that our region typically sees drier than normal and warmer than normal temperatures during Strong El Nino winters, BUT they also increase the risk of a big time winter weather event with 1997 and 15'-16' are prime examples and I think the same thing happens this year.

As a whole this year I think we see slightly above normal snowfall but not by much. I think it's currently more likely than not that a bulk of that total snowfall comes from one or two bigger events with several smaller ones. Take a look at my projected snowfall map below for the entire winter:

The best chance for seeing above normal snowfall will be along and east of the I-75 corridor this winter. The mountains of course will get much more than anywhere else but I like areas of southern and southeastern Kentucky to get in on a bigger storm that could easily bring half of these projected totals in one go. Historical data is on our side for a bigger storm just keep that in mind! 

Western parts of the state have the greatest uncertainty for now. This is due to storm track. The track of each system is going to have a lot of say so in who gets what and how much. I can't rule out a sizeable system taking a little more northerly path bringing winter storm criteria a few times to those locations out west.

Eastern Kentucky will pose a threat for flooding later in the season and if you draw a line from far southwestern parts of the state all the way to the northeastern parts of the state you'll get the corridor of where I'm most concerned with a potential ice storm threat. That would basically run from Bowling 
Green, through the Richmond area and on further northeast towards Ashland as well.

This is a winter that I'll call a "big risk, high reward" kind of thing. Strong El Nino winters are again, typically dry but that risk could come with a big reward of a significant winter storm across the region. I do want to leave you with a side note as we look ahead into the mid range, at first glance your White Christmas odds are decent from a pattern/upper atmospheric stand point as models are hinting at a deep trough across the eastern half of the country on Christmas week. (This has been something showing up for several weeks now) Let's keep those fingers crossed!

As always, thank you for reading and being apart of this journey for 15+ years now. I appreciate every single one of you guys as followers and readers but as friends as well. We continue to grow and make great memories as a team and for that I will always be grateful. It's also wonderful meeting you guys out and about asking me about the weather and saying "hello!". I look forward to meeting each and every one of you guys as we continue this journey together.

From my family to yours, Happy Thanksgiving! Stay safe, and I'll see you around!

Sleeper Event Goes Wild

Good Sunday to my favorite fellow weather lovers! I had a few minutes this afternoon and wanted to break out the old Blog once again to share some things with you. I really wanted to talk about the severe weather event that happened back on Wednesday evening. As someone who has chased these things for years, and knows a thing or two about a thing or two, you simply cannot have any closer of a call than what we had on Wednesday. It also hits different when it you being chased and not that chaser and when its your whole family involved and not just you.

Let's recap a bit shall we? Wednesday a slight risk for severe thunderstorms was in place for a good chunk of the state. A MCV was moving eastward across western Kentucky to start the day. I was reviewing forecast models before work that morning thinking "This is a classic sleeper event" Yes, the threats were real but likely down-played some due to the current thinking of  issues with available moisture and a slight cap being in place. 

I had shared with you guys that morning that if I was chasing I'd start in Elizabethtown, Kentucky and make my way east and south through out the afternoon and evening. No sooner that the afternoon struck, severe thunderstorms warnings went up for the Elizabethtown area for damaging winds and large hail. Some rotation was already being noted in some of these which I already knew there was enough spin available in the atmosphere to produce a tornado or two later in the day. There was also a lull in action for a period in the afternoon but once into the evening hours it was all about the southeast.

Severe thunderstorms warnings start to go up into our coverage area in Pulaski County and that's when I noticed strong rotation showing up on velocity scans and no sooner than I made the post for folks to be very weather aware in Somerset and SE Pulaski County, the NWS went ahead and upgraded the Severe Thunderstorm Warning to a Tornado Warning. Folks, I'm here to tell you I've seen similar radar returns and velocity scans when tracking storms in the midwestern parts of the country and watched those produce strong tornadoes. When I tell you this was as close of a call you can get without anything happening I mean that. It would have worst case scenario if this storm was slightly better organized and had more spacing from other storms.

I live in the Southwestern part of Laurel County, and my family and I was trying to enjoy dinner when I noticed that this thing was headed straight for us. There was no signs of weakening and when outside taking observations, I noticed I could see it. I saw a massive, ominous, rotating wall cloud, slightly hidden by other trees beyond my neighbors houses. At that moment it hit me. The reality that my family and I was in great danger. As I mentioned above, I'm no stranger to chasing these things, about 7 years ago I was turkey hunting one morning and decided to hang up my gun to bust my butt and hustle across county to intercept a Gustnado that produced a tornado warning and it's still one of my most memorable chases to this day, but on Wednesday I realized the chaser was being chased and this time it was coming for my family and my home. 

As you guys know I took shelter with my family and made myself available for further updates as long as I could. Ultimately this thing took a last second jog south and missed us by nearly a mile. Although no tornado ever materialized but like I continue to mention, this was as close of a call that could have been a hundred times worse. These storms went on to produce multiple other Tornado Warnings through the evening and like the near miss at home, the situation could have been a lot worse and speaking from a Meteorological standpoint, it wouldn't have taken much more for this thing to have been a strong, long lived tornado. 

Guys, when a tornado warning is issued, its best to take cover no matter if your local weather guy says "the rotation isn't that strong" if they say that they they're being very misleading because radar can long see so close to the ground and here's why. Radar sends out a beam that runs straight which is fine, but here's the issue, the earth is curved. That means the further you live away from the radar site which in this case was Jackson, KY (about 73 miles away from London) the more space there is that is missed from the surface of the earth to the radar beam itself. That alone is way more than enough for a tornado to be ongoing and the radar to not see it. Meaning if a warning is issued, take cover, because its better to be safe than sorry. 

I wanted to write this post to give you a sort of behind the scenes of what was going on that day and how truly of a close call it was. This should be a reminder that we are still in the middle of severe thunderstorm season and tornadoes are still a possibility during severe weather days and as long as you guys allow me (and don't fire me) I'll continue to be here and help give the knowledge, and share all information needed to help you stay weather aware. I'm also looking to roll out the website in the near future that will feature all kinds of awesome things. I'm also looking for paid sponsors that will help fund equipment upgrades to continue to stay #1 in the way you get the best, most accurate weather information. Feel free to reach out to me on deals for that as well. We have great things planned and I thank you for being along for the ride. Have a great week and take care my friends, and always stay weather aware. 

November Flakes

 Good afternoon friends, and welcome to the rare blog post nowadays! I had a few extra moment this afternoon while dealing with my sick children to give you guys a quick post.

As you’ve seen my posts on the weather page, you’d know that I’ve called for November to really bring the chill. I’m currently expecting our first flakes to fly, before the 10th of November and during that timeframe we’ll see our first freeze as well.

Current seasonal models like the CFS that have been on a roll as of late are hoping onto my thinking. The 9th of November is the day it calls for some snowflakes and this particular model also calls for some southern stream systems to get going throwing a wrench into things and making the rest of the month very interesting!

Keep in mind that I also believe we see our first accumulating snow, whether it be a dusting or more by Thanksgiving. All the signs are there for winter to get rolling early and that’s a good sign for cold and snow lovers.

What are some of your predictions for this winter? Let me know in the comments section or on the Facebook weather page! Have a great Tuesday everyone and keep your eyes on my Facebook page (Clayton Banks Weather) for more winter weather tidbits in the coming days and weeks!

Winter Weather Forecast 2020 Edition

 Happy Turkey Day to all of you out there. I hope this post finds you and your families warm, safe, happy, and healthy for the Holiday's! May we end this wild year with a good note and start off 2021 on an even better one! First and foremost, here's a shoutout to those who have been following this wonderful and wild weather journey of mine. This year marks 10 years! Wow! Thank you for allowing me into your homes via computer/cellular devices to do what I do best. Thank you all. Now, to the fun part, welcome to my official 2020 Winter Weather Forecast!

Let's get to things shall we? First and foremost I'm watching our FIRST winter weather system that may very well impact the Bluegrass this coming weekend into early next week. Again, we're still about 5 days out so nothing is set in stone but the major model families are all on this storm they just differ from placement and strength of the overall system. WhooHoo! It's fun to be back tracking Winter Weather! I'll have more and several updates on that storm and another wintry one that will follow that up later in the week all on my Facebook page.

This year I've been closely watching the Analogs as they are always a good guidance to how the upcoming pattern map play out in the upper levels of the atmosphere which in turn, have a direct affect on our weather. The Analogs are showing something we haven't seen in about 5 years or so and are currently lining up with years like 2010 and other years that went on to produce cold and above average snows. Even a few Winter Storms as well.

To simplify this for you all this Analog is showing High Pressure Blocking to the northeast and to the northwest in North America. (Blocking is noted by the red color). This causes a dip or buckle in the Jet Stream noted by the black lines dipping across eastern parts of the U.S. and at the base of that you see the Blue color, which is noted by stormy and cooler than average weather.

That is a pattern you'll want to see for most of the Winter if you are a lover for Snow and cold and as of right now this is the look for much of December. As for typical storm tracks we'll see this year, here's what I'm thinking in terms of that and how it could play out:

The Green track is one that would bring heavy rains to start and likely wrap around snows with some Lake Effect Snows as well. This general track usually produces anything from little to no snowflakes to 1-3" totals depending on storm strength. The Blue track is one that all snow lovers want. This track depending on storm strength can start off with rain and usually has a smooth transition to snow with high rain/snow ratios. This track is one that typically produces heavy, wet snowflakes that accumulate quickly. I've seen these tracks produce anywhere from little to no snow (again depending on storm strength and available cold air) all the way to measurements in feet!

My current thinking is overall as a whole temperatures look to be slightly above normal for the winter, but it doesn't look to be a barn burner by any means. I think December averages to be well below normal with above normal snows. I think January and February could be more of a toss up but skews warmer than normal. Watch February into March for a late Winter Storm that could have severe storms head of it and 4"+ snows a possibility behind it.

Although the past several years argue for little to nothing this winter and some folks things the stretch for no snow continues but I believe that ends this year. All the signs and signals are there that should be. This fall has been a polar opposite of the previous years we have seen with no snow and very little cold. Things are matching up very well with previous winters that went on to be good winters. I say we end up average to above average snowfall for the year and slightly above average for temperatures. Look for a total of 12-20" of snow all together with temperatures running anywhere from 0.5-1.5 degrees warmer than normal.

I also believe there is a shot that the area sees 2-4 winter storms that may boast snowfall totals, but that's only if conditions are right and we'd need anything to go in our favor in order to see anything like that this year. My bold prediction for the season is Severe thunderstorms and accumulating snows all in the same day.

Thank you for tuning in a reading the official 2020 Winter Weather Forecast! Have a great Thanksgiving and be sure to give the post a share for those wondering how this Winter season may go! Have a great extended weekend and Take care!

History In the Gulf? The Fujiwhara Effect!

 Hello everyone and here's to hoping you're making the most out of your Friday out there. Today temperatures are up a few degrees as well as the humidity, but either way it still feels much nicer than it has! Let's take a look at the tropics as history is about to be made in the Gulf of Mexico. 

What if I told you guys that two hurricanes are about to occur at the same time in the Gulf of Mexico? Well you should believe me! Come Monday/Tuesday we will likely see two hurricanes at the same time in the Gulf. 2020 is putting in some work for sure folks!

Here's an updated track and information on newly named Tropical Storm Laura!

 Tropical Storm Laura is expected to have a lot of land interaction along it's way into the gulf which will hinder it's development until Monday anyways where Laura is expected to become at least a category 1 Hurricane before landfall. Currently moving west at 18mph with sustained winds of 45mph. Notice the cone of uncertainty, if this storm gets a little north of the expected line it gives Laura a much better chance of being an even stronger storm by landfall. This is a tricky forecast so make sure all family and friends/interests anywhere in the gulf is on high alert.

 Tropical Depression 14 is still spinning getting its act together where we expect it to become named later today. Here's a current look:

Tropical Depression 14 is expected to become a Hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico before a landfall in southeastern Texas. Current forecasts call for slight weakening before landfall but I'm not sold. My official forecast is to hold hurricane strength and could even be slightly stronger.

This two storms will be the first even to "co-exist" in the Gulf of Mexico together and possibly both as Hurricanes. Not only does this look to be historical we could see a rare effect occur with these two storms passing so close to each other known as the "Fujiwhara Effect" Here's a little tidbit from the Nation Weather Service themselves: "When two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center. If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed. Two storms closer in strength can gravitate towards each other until they reach a common point and merge, or merely spin each other around for a while before shooting off on their own paths. In rare occasions, the effect is additive when the hurricanes come together, resulting in one larger storm instead of two smaller ones."

Here's a look at a graphic also posted by the Nation Weather Service showing you what exactly a Fujiwhara Effect is:

This is Hurricane Hilary and Hurricane Irwin. Hurricane Irwin on the left collided with Hurricane Hilary on the right as the two merged and later died out.

This only adds to the uncertainty between both storms on the track alone. It's possible we see this occur and have one bigger storm or a really cool experience. Let's just all agree that we'd all like to fast forward to 2021!

Back at home today like I stated above we see an increase in humidity and showers. I don't expect a wash out all day by any means but some storms could really put down the rains in a short amount of time. Like always I'll have updates and rapid updates via FB page if the situation arises. Make it a great weekend y'all and take care! 

TD 13, TD 14, Early Fall Like Continues

 Good Thursday to all! Today's post will focus more on the active tropics pattern rather than here back home. Why? Because the tropics this time of year really dictates the patterns in our neck of the woods and the second reason is the weather here back home is just too amazing and there isn't much more to add to that!

Let's start with the current threats in the tropics, as we currently have two legitimate threats to landfall. Then beyond that we have a tropical wave that has a good chance to further develop into a named system. I need you all to understand that we are on a record pace with named storms and we've likely never been so busy in the tropics and we are just now getting into the active/busy period with named storms and hurricanes.  Let's start with the legit threats:

Tropical Depression 13:

As you can see here in the "cone of uncertainty" we could be looking at a South Florida landfall as early as next Tuesday morning. Notice how the cone gets substantially bigger? The reason for that is beyond 3 days the forecast gets cloudy as it does with any other weather event. TD 13 currently has sustained winds of 35mph and is forecasted to be a hurricane by Monday morning. There is a lot of unknowns here. Mainly being look at all the island interactions possible. Those would just hinder development and make for a weaker storms but if TD13 can find a way to avoid these islands we could be looking at a serious threat to Florida and parts of the Gulf.

The other legit threat we're watching is currently a bit closer to the U.S. That would be Tropical Depression 14:

TD 14 is a interesting one as the forecast split beyond Sunday. Some call for a weaker storm that pulls west and makes landfall into central Mexico, other models continue to track this storm north/northwestward with a Texas/Louisiana landfall as a stronger storm. The north solution gives more time over the warm Gulf waters and my gut tells me that forecast is a conservative one. It's likely that if the northern track occurs this storm will likely be a hurricane at landfall. Trends are currently supportive of a northern track and stronger solution.

Current models are back and forth with these two systems trying to co-exist in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. My belief is the further north and east that TD 14 travels, the more is chokes off TD 13's ability to strengthen and based off of current conditions it appears that TD 13 has the better chance at becoming a much stronger storm. Nonetheless all interests along any of the Gulf of Mexico states should be wide open as literally all locations are in play for both storms.

Back here on the home front, amazing temperatures continue through the weekend with daily lows near 60, maybe even upper 50's in some cases with daily high into the low 80's. You will notice an uptick in humidity levels each day but nothing terrible. This will also introduce slightly higher rain chances each day but no wash out's by any means. Early next week we get into higher rain chances and temperatures getting closer to normal.

All indications are that August finishes up cooler than normal and depending on the tropics we could see that continue into September. I'm really watching the pattern as a whole that has a signal for a cooler than normal and wetter than normal Fall season all thanks to a La Nina that looks to be organizing. 

As always make it a great Thursday and take care.

70 Degrees, Severe Storms In January?

Good Tuesday afternoon everyone and thank you for stopping by. As you know with me working a full time job, and full time parent it leaves me very little time to get into the blog here and give you those full updates that you've been so accustomed to over the years, but nonetheless you have my Facebook page Clayton Banks Weather and the Remind App for weather alerts so I guess you can say I stay busy! Anyways enough about me let's dive into this crazy pattern for a moment shall we?

Some areas got in on some mixed precipitation and some down right accumulating snows to our east. Some locations just east of our areas picked up 3" of the white stuff and on radar last night it was actually a near miss for us. Looking ahead temperatures warm back up and flirt with 70 degrees by the weekend. Thursday we see some showers and cloudiness trying to sneak in but I don't expect us to see a whole lot until Friday.

Saturday comes along and the further east you live the higher temperatures spike. My official forecast put the area at 70 degrees but seeing the setup we may be under done by a few degrees and that will also play into the hands of Severe Thunderstorms later that day. There's a chance that Saturday looks darn good until Thunderstorm move in. Wind will be gusting outside of storms at 50mph.

A line of strong to severe storms will roll eastward through the area and likely into the evening hours. Main threats will be damaging winds, torrential rains, and hail. A much smaller but secondary risk of a quick spin up tornado or two is also there but again the risk is small as of now. Take a look at the radar image below.

This image is from the very latest GFS model for Saturday. With wind gusts already to 50mph, it really wouldn't take too much more to cause damage so be on the look out for that.

As of now the Storm Prediction Center has keep us just out of the SLIGHT RISK for Severe Thunderstorms area but I do fully expect that to change into the coming days as we get closer and it's likely to extend well into central part of Kentucky too. Take a look at the current Slight Risk area as it stands today:

As you can tell from the image above, areas of the deep south is likely looking at a significant severe weather event. Fortunately for us we're not expected to see anything like this here.

After we get through Saturday, SUnday is pretty quiet in terms of weather but Monday into Tuesday could be another heavy rain event while Severe Storms could also play another role. Go home Mother Nature, you're drunk! At this point I say let's go ahead and turn the page to spring what do you all think?

I do see in the long range towards the end of the month we're going to try and flip the pattern back to a more winter like setup. It's too early to be specific on anything but precipitation also looks to stay above normal during that time frame as well so that much bodes well for snow lovers.

As always tanks for tuning in, make it a great Tuesday everyone and take care!