Anyways this winter is different this than ones we've had in the past few years. Remember me talking about El Nino and La Nina? This applies to every winter, Too high or low of an El Nino or La Nina means out winter will be almost non-existent. For a good winter, we need an slight El Nino. Does that look to happen this year? No. We look to stay in a Neutral Phase. A neutral phase isn't too bad. It just means that we can't look too far ahead and we have to play it one storm at a time. Meaning one storm it can be too warm and the next could be brutally cold. Here's a look at the El Nino forecast. Keep in mind that anything above a 0.5 is El Nino criteria. Anything lower than -0.5 is La Nina Criteria. In the middle? You guessed it, Neutral Phase. Take a look:
As you can tell, we're in a Neutral Phase and we look to stay that way into Jan and Feb. of 2014. Like I stated above, we will have to play things storm by storm and try not to get too caught up in what the long term shows as it's probably going to change anyways.
Next I want to show you this recent Analog model. Analogs sums up how this year is going compared to years past up to this date and how the other years turned out. This is a difficult form of forecasting and takes a while to master, but usually produces good results. Now, before I go in depth I want you to look at the map below and keep in mind what really stands out to you on this map.
Not sure what stands out to you, but for me its the big red circles surrounding the + sign just off the coast of Alaska. That my friends is called a blocking high pressure. This blocking is so massive that it will force plenty of brutal cold air into the middle and eastern parts of the country this winter. Due to the pure strength of this blocking high, I would not be surprised if we see temperatures drop below 0 degrees a few tomes this winter.
Now we're on the topic of the temperatures it makes for a good time to reveal my home-made version of average temperature maps for the winter ahead:
Overall, I believe we come out just below average temperature wise for the winter ahead. About a degree below average for much of central and eastern Kentucky while slightly colder for the western half of the state. Now with this being said, I do see some warmer spells and some cold spells ahead. Remember this is an average of all the temperatures together.
Now onto the snowfall forecast map. This is the one everyone asks about and I just want to say this before you see the map, The average for snowfall here in London is just above 10 inches for the entire winter. This map shows the whole winters totals combined and does factor in the snows we've already gotten. Take a look:
BOLD PREDICTIONS: 1. I predict that we see more than one day of subzero temperatures (-0 degrees or colder) this winter. Blocking high pressure ushers in brutally cold artic air into the area.
2. I believe we see at the least, one snowfall of 6 inches or greater this winter. The type of setup with the massive blocking high pressure will also bring in the chances of bigger snows this winter.
With all of this being said, I certainly think this winter has the chance to be a memorable one. I cannot tell you it will happen but there's always a chance.
Thank all of you for reading! If you would like to leave your thoughts in a post on my facebook page feel free to do so with some feedback. I need as much feedback as possible as it helps me better focus on what I need to work at to get better to help you! Have a great evening everyone and take care!
