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Saturday, October 27, 2012

Hurricane Sandy For The Northeast, Winter Storm For Kentucky?

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! I just wanted to give you a heads up on Sandy. Why? Because it's a storms that has NEVER HAPPENED before! No hurricane has made landfall and have snow on the back side of it! As you know the snow that will be on the back side will be wet and heavy due to the fact that this is tropical moisture being pulled up and that tropical moisture is abundant!

Anyways alot of the models are leaning towards some snow for Kentucky. How much exactly is yet to be known due to the fact that the snowfall output models only go as far as Tuesday when more snow is expected Wednesday and maybe early Thursday. Here's a look at the NAM Snowfall Output Model:
This is calling for as much as 8 in eastern Kentucky and a major snowstorm in the central App. Mts. I wanted to tell you that the latest model runs is calling for RECORD SNOWFALL for eastern Kentucky. This is something crazy going on and like I said above the mixture of a tropical system turning to snow has never happened!

Either way I fully expect some snow showers in our neck of the woods! I'll have several updates through out the weekend on my twitter and facebook feeds. Have a great day everyone and take care!

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Winter Weather Forecast Part 1 of 3.

Good day everyone and welcome back to the blog! This is the day everyone has been waiting for a long time. I've been asked all the time "Do you think this winter will be bad?" I always said" I can't say right now I'm working on my Winter Weather Forecast." Well finally it's here! No more waiting here it is enjoy and let me know what you think!

Let's start with the El Nino. We're currently in a El Nino phase and what that is its warmer than normal waters off the western coast of South America in the Pacific ocean. Now at this point your probably saying "Okay, so what does this have to do with our weather here for the winter?" The answer is very simple.. Everything. Here's one example on what El Nino does with our weather patterns:
El Nino splits the Jet Stream into 2 seperate Jet Streams. One northerly and southerly. The northerly jet will bring all those cold shots down from Canada and as the southerly goes along Texas, Louisiana and other Gulf states, it brings in tons of moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico and right where the red "L" is on the map is where those jet streams becomes one again and thats where big snowstorms frequently occur with the very cold air and the abundant moisture. Like the picture says above this is the set up for a Weak to Moderate El Nino. If your a snow lover you want a weak El Nino.

Another factor into snowfall is blocking. Bolcking is simply a large area of high pressure sitting over Greenland and Alaska and doesn't move for long periods of time. The blocking over alaska allows the very cold Canadian air to dive deep into the southern United States, sometimes as far as Florida. What that does is creates a ridge in the west letting cold air dive down shot after shot deep into the United States and during winter that could put our temperatures in the low teens to single didgets overnight and sometimes as high temperatures.

Here's another example like the one shown above but from the good folks at Tornado Titans:
This is basically the same thing and remember the most northern jet stream brings all that very cold artic air down with it and the southerly jet sream brings the mositure from the Gulf of Mexico.

Now for the maps you all have been waiting for: Here's the 2012-2013 Winer Weather Forecast from Accuweather.com:
The folks at Accuweather are calling for an above average snowfall for our half of the state. Looking good so far right? ;)

Here's what I think for the average temperatures during the winter season:

I believe the further west you live this winter will be the closer to normal temperature wise you will be, and as you can tell I have the higher elevations of northeastern Kentucky and northern Kentucky around Covington and including Lexington at 1-3 degrees below normal. Then from our location westward then shifting northwestward including Louisville at 0-2 degrees below normal. I do believe that the several cold shots coming in from the northwest during the winter will make for a colder than normal winter. Now these lines will probably change by time I make my 2nd update and the 3rd and final Winter Weather Forecast update.

Now, here is the main course and this will answer any questions you all have about this winter, but before I show you this Image I want all of you to know this is just a PRELIMINARY FORECAST.
This is subject to change and WILL CHANGE. Thats why on the title you'll notice I put Part 1 of 3. I will be making changes through out rest the fall season.

Here it is. My first call for total snowfall map for the Winter of 2012-2013!

I know it's hard to see but folks thats 24-29" inches of snow I'm forecasting for our area. 30-35" for the higher elevations of eastern Kentucky, 16-21" in the north central parts of the state this does include Louisville. 19-23" for the south central part of the state including Bowling Green. Last but not least, 13-18" of snow for the western parts of the state including Paducah.

Yeah thats right folks. We could be talking about alot of snow here this winter. The average snowfall in Lexington is about 13" and maybe 18-20 here. Remember this is just a first estimate and if things holds the same with the El nino, and blocking we could be in for a wild ride this winter. I'll probably come down with the snowfall totals in the next updates although I'm not completely sure yet but I do know that they will change at least a little bit, but thats something to look out for.

Now with all of that above being said, I do believe there could be a few situations where we could see 6" or more of snow with any given system that moves through. Most snows will likely be 1-2 inches like usual, but like I just said with the way El Nino has been bouncing in and out of the Neutral and Weak phases we could see a little bit of everything. Personally I think El Nino may make a comeback. "This is the hardest winter to predict in several years past." This statement coming from several Meteorologists.

Please note, if El Nino conditions fade away and doesn't come back we may not get squat this winter. If it turns into a La Nina phase (which it is unlikely nor expected to do.), or a Neutral Phase then our snow chances could be ruined.

Thanks for reading everyone and let me know what you think with a tweet @ClaytonBanks1 a hit on  the ol' Facebook, or leave a comment on this blog post just be sure to leave me your name so I can thank you! I'll be giving shout outs on Facebook and Twitter for those who does leave a comment on this post on the blog or if you send me a message on what you liked and what you would like to see for next time. Thank you everyone for everything, without you this wouldn't be possible. All of you are the exact reason why I do this! Have a great day everyone and God Bless :)

Monday, October 22, 2012

Indian Summer!

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog on this great Monday! I wanted to touch up on the upcoming forecast ahead and let you know about a few things I see in our furure!

Today high temperatures will range between 73-78 degrees with the record high for today in London being 81 degrees. Tomorrow high temperatures a touch higher between 74-79 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Wednesday highs between 75-80 degrees with partly cloudy skies, Tursday looks to be the most clear day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures between 75-80 degrees. Friday will probably be the last day in the 70s with highs between 72-77 degrees.

I'm seeing a huge change in the weather come this weekend. Some models are talking about a tropical system just off the east-southeast coastline and a cold front moving in bringing some serious cold air. Ahead of it you will see tropical like temperatures and chances of thunderstorms and also some models are also talking about some snow on the back end of this.

I am also seeing the chance for an early start to the winter season sometime within the first 2 weeks of November. I'm not saying it will happen but there is certainly a chance because in years past we've gotten a taste of winter early. Plus the models have been pointing towards this for a while.

On another note, we're about a day and a half away from the release of my Winter Weather Forecast! It will be available on this blog ONLY! It will also be available as of 12am eastern on Wednesday! be sure to check it out and let me know what you think! If you give any feedback I'll give a big shout out to you on the ol' fackbook and/or twitter!

Have a great Monday everyone and take care! :)

Friday, October 12, 2012

Warm Up On The Way!

Hello everyone adn welcome back to the blog on this early Friday morning. Not much is going on weather wise around these parts so I'll cut to the chase quickly ha. As you know I've released the launch date for my Preliminary Winter Weather Forecast. October 24th is the date and that is now 12 days away! Get ready! Anyways I want to touch up on the weather in the short term here.

Today a warm front moves in and brings temperatures up back near normal. We'll start the day off chilly with could in the area. Those clouds will then clear out bringing high temperatures in the upper 60s near 70 degrees. Saturday looks great too with high temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. Sunday through Tuesday features temperatures in the 70s as well. We like to call this Indian Summer.

Friday and Saturday won't be so great for the folks in the midwestern states. There are expected to have a significant tornado outbreak. Take a look at the 850mb hight and wind forecast from the NAM model for Saturday in the midwest:
This was actually posted by Tornado Chaser Reed Timmer.Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri watch out, severe possibly tornado producing thunderstorms may be heading your way on Saturday!

I know the weather here is for the most part calm except for the early morning chills that nobody is quite used to yet :p. Anyways I hope you call can remember that in 12 days my Preliminary Winter Weather Forecast will be released so mark your calendars for October 24th! I hope all of you are excited. This should answer alot of questions I've been asked since July!

Have a great Friday everyone and take care! :)

Monday, October 1, 2012

Changes A Brewin'

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog! Good Monday to you as well. Many of you was busy over the weekend at the Chicken Festival and now that it's over we go back to our normal lives. As the weekend was a busy one, today becomes a busy day for the weather and its shaping up to be a wild next few weeks as well.

Anyways, today as you can tell we'll get swamped with heavy rains. Somes areas here in southern Kentucky are expected to pick up 2-3 inches of rain before its all said and done. My eyes is on a pettern that could bring us our first freeze of the year and a early one at that! I know I posted a model forecast for this coming weekend that showed snowfall potential of a few inches in eastern Kentucky. Thats WILL NOT happen thats just the models going crazy like they always do when its a week out. That model was also a bit biased so to speak because of that one heck of a shot of cold air thats moving in.

Anyways, tomorrow Temperatures will rise into the 70s for highs and thats means we need to watch for strong to severe thunderstorms as we still have these tropical rains in place. Wednesday highs stay into the mid and upper 60s for highs, Thursday looks like a good day with highs in the low 70s. I am seeing some massive blocking in western Canada and what that means is below freezing temperatures this weekend into early next week!

I believe that massive blocking is a sign of what is to come this winter. Dang it another hit towards the almighty winter weather forecast! ;). I will give you all this much. If we continue to see this kind of blocking in the The Western Canada/Alaska area that could spell a rough winter for us.

Have a great day everyone and take care! :)